Bitcoin may be nearing a market bottom, as a macroeconomic model based on the 10-year government bond yields of the United States and China suggests the cryptocurrency could stage a rally toward $100,000 in the coming months.
Key takeaways:
- Large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales, are showing accumulation patterns similar to those observed around the market bottom in 2023.
- At the same time, BTC is holding a key long-term support level while appearing oversold, a combination that increases the likelihood of a potential price recovery.
History rhymes? BTC flashes “precise” bullish cross
The model, shared by analyst AO, applies a Stochastic RSI oscillator to the combined product of the 10-year government bond yields of the United States and China.
When the indicator is compared with the historical price movements of Bitcoin, it shows that bullish crossovers emerging from oversold conditions have frequently occurred near major BTC market bottoms.
For example, in 2013, a similar crossover preceded an 8,700% surge in the price of Bitcoin. Comparable signals also appeared before the 2017 bull market (+1,900%), the 2020–2021 cycle (+600%), and the 2023 rebound (+350% or more).
In March, the Stochastic RSI indicator flashed another “extremely precise” bullish crossover, according to analyst Crypto Rand, who said the signal suggests Bitcoin could be “heading much higher.”
Whale activity strengthens bottom thesis
Onchain data tracking large Bitcoin holders — commonly referred to as whales — also supports the bullish macro outlook.
Data shows that wallets holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulating Bitcoin during the recent price pullback, a pattern that closely resembles the accumulation behavior observed near previous market bottoms.
For example, the same group of large holders began accumulating Bitcoin in early 2023 when prices were near their lows, before the asset went on to rally more than 350%.
Similar accumulation patterns among major holders were also observed ahead of the 2017 and 2020 bull markets. This trend could increase the likelihood that Bitcoin is approaching a market bottom sooner than some analysts currently expect.
BTC technicals point to a potential rebound toward $100,000
Technical indicators on Bitcoin’s weekly chart are also beginning to suggest the possibility of a recovery.
Over the past month, sellers have been unable to push BTC decisively below its 100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA) — a key support level that has historically coincided with market bottoms in previous cycles.
After testing this support level in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,000%, while a similar rebound in 2019 was followed by gains exceeding 300%.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory below 30, indicating the asset may have declined too sharply and too quickly — a condition that often increases the likelihood of a price rebound.
If BTC stages a strong recovery from the 200-week simple moving average, analysts say the price could climb toward $100,000 by August, where the 50-week SMA aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
However, some analysts warn that the market could face a bull trap if Bitcoin fails to break above the $78,000 resistance level, which is considered crucial for confirming a broader bullish reversal.
On the downside, key support areas include the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,300 and a broader $60,000–$65,500 support zone below the current spot price.
