Key takeaways:
- The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium turned negative as BTC slipped below $104,000.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s RSI fell to its lowest level since April, suggesting a potential bottom zone.
- The 200-day EMA continues to serve as a key support level, with BTC facing the risk of short-term capitulation.
Bitcoin extended its downward momentum on Friday, dropping to $103,500 and sparking a clear shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index — which measures the price gap between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges — turned negative on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC tried to find support around $110,000, aided by steady spot demand from US investors. The Coinbase Premium even spiked to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024.
However, as BTC failed to hold above $110,000 on Thursday, that short-term optimism waned. The hourly Coinbase Premium has turned negative, though the daily reading remains slightly positive, suggesting that long-term US buying support hasn’t vanished entirely but is under pressure.
Adding to the bearish momentum, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume surged past $4 billion, indicating a wave of market sell orders. This move coincided with BTC’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price at $112,370 — a key resistance level representing the average cost basis for recent buyers. Sustained rejection below this level could accelerate short-term capitulation toward $100,000.
Bitcoin echoes its March–April bottom structure
BTC’s current price action mirrors the March–April bottom range, where sharp intraday wicks absorbed liquidity accumulated over 30 days before a gradual recovery took hold. This pattern indicates that BTC could revisit the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish trend—unless it drops decisively below that level.
The relative strength index (RSI) also dropped to its lowest level, matching April’s low of 34, after which BTC began to recover on the charts.
A crucial technical level to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has respected for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, the EMA held from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly breaking during consolidation. This cycle, the trendline has remained intact from April to October 2025, though the price could test or lose it in the coming days.
If BTC follows its prior fractal, the market may enter a consolidation phase lasting several weeks. In Q1, the recovery extended roughly 45–55 days, with a true bottom forming only in late April. Applying the same pattern suggests a gradual recovery may not occur until late November or early December.
Crypto trader Dentoshi echoed this view, stating,
“$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run—but it’s taken 45–96 days to do so.”
