The growing divergence between Bitcoin and major US tech stocks is an early warning of a potential AI-driven credit crisis that could force central banks to print more money, according to crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes.
In a blog post published Wednesday, Hayes described Bitcoin as “the global fiat liquidity fire alarm,” arguing that it is the most sensitive freely traded asset to changes in fiat credit supply.
He warned that Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index signals that a significant credit contraction may be approaching. When two asset classes that have historically moved in tandem begin to diverge, Hayes said, it merits closer scrutiny for potential triggers that could lead to fiat — primarily dollar — credit destruction, or deflation.
Hayes contended that widespread job losses driven by artificial intelligence adoption could strain consumer credit and mortgage markets, as many white-collar workers may struggle to keep up with monthly debt obligations.
“That’s a bold statement to call for a financial crisis because of job losses caused by AI adoption.”
AI job losses could spark another banking crisis
In 2025, companies attributed roughly 55,000 job cuts to artificial intelligence — more than 12 times the number linked to AI-related layoffs just two years earlier, according to a report by CBS News in early February.
Arthur Hayes argued that such a trend could snowball into a broader financial shock. “This AI financial crisis will restart the money printing machine for realz,” he wrote.
Based on his rough model, a 20% reduction among the roughly 72 million US knowledge workers could translate into approximately $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses — equivalent to about a 13% write-down of US commercial bank equity.
Arthur Hayes speculated that smaller regional banks would be the first to crack under mounting loan losses, prompting depositors to withdraw funds and triggering a broader freeze in credit markets. In his view, the turmoil would ultimately force the Federal Reserve to step in with renewed money printing.
“While the Fed is fighting windmills, AI-related job losses will destroy the balance sheets of American banks,” he wrote.
“Finally, the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump.”
Arthur Hayes said a renewed wave of fiat liquidity would “pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows,” arguing that expectations of large-scale money creation to stabilize the banking system would push Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes noted that his investment firm, Maelstrom, plans to deploy excess stablecoins into Zcash and Hyperliquid once the Federal Reserve signals a policy pivot.
A history of bold money-printing predictions
This is not the first time Hayes has advanced an aggressive liquidity-driven thesis. In January, he argued that the Federal Reserve would resort to money printing to ease stress in Japan’s government bond market.
In December 2025, he also forecast that Bitcoin could climb to $200,000 by March, driven by liquidity injections through a new Fed facility dubbed Reserve Management Purchases — a mechanism he likened to a renewed form of quantitative easing.
