Mike Novogratz predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will have a breakout 2026 after crypto sentiment hit near all-time lows in 2025, comparing the year to an Apollo 13 mission where the command module barely made it back intact.
Why 2026 Could Be Crypto’s Year
In the latest “All Things Markets” podcast by Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz said Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance against gold and silver created a setup for a major reversal, with retail sentiment dead and Google searches for Bitcoin near all-time lows.
The year started with moonshot predictions but Bitcoin stalled at the launchpad.
“We were set up super bowled up at the beginning of 2025. We’re going to the moon, and it stalled,” Novogratz said.
“It was like Apollo 13. We basically got the command module back intact,” he added.
That failure reset sentiment and cleared out leveraged longs.
Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY) CEO now sees the negativity as a contrary indicator, with most professionals positioned risk-off heading into 2026.
The Fed Factor: Trump Wants 1% Rates
Both investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively in 2026, driven by President Donald Trump’s push for 1% interest rates — what Scaramucci calls recession-level policy.
Trump is interviewing Fed chair candidates this week and asking directly whether 100 basis point cuts are possible.
Candidates including Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett are all being pressed on their willingness to slash rates.
Novogratz cited the old Goldman Sachs mantra: “Don’t fight the Fed. If you’re telling me the Fed’s coming down, I don’t want to fight the Fed. I’m long. We’re positioned long.”
The Dollar Selloff Trade
Novogratz’s top macro trade for 2026 is shorting the dollar as the Fed cuts rates and a new dovish Fed chair takes over.
He predicts the Euro climbs from 1.18 to 1.30 over the course of the year, with the Australian dollar also gaining ground as global liquidity expands.
Yen Carry Trade Could Explode
The yen carry trade — where investors borrow in yen at near-zero rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, could accelerate if Japan continues raising rates to stem capital outflows.
Dollar-yen is currently around 157, but Novogratz sees it hitting 200 by the end of 2026 as Japanese investors flee rising domestic rates.
The best currency trade of 2025 was shorting yen against the Mexican peso, which delivered 20% plus another 7% in carry. That trade likely continues into 2026.
A weaker yen means more global liquidity flooding into risk assets, which historically benefits Bitcoin.
Trump’s Lucky Break: AI Boom Meets Falling Inflation
Scaramucci predicts Trump will benefit regardless of tariff outcomes as inflation trends down while the AI boom accelerates productivity gains.
If Trump wins the tariff fight, he gets fiscal rebates.
If he loses, markets rally on more cash flow.
Either way, the AI infrastructure buildout — including massive data center construction, continues driving productivity and economic growth.
Read Next:
Why Every Superstar ETF Ended Up As A Tech And AI Bet In 2025
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