Bitcoin’s on-chain data is signaling a cooling period. Normalized Address Activity (NAA), a key metric for transactional intensity, has dropped from 60% (the level where the $124,128 all-time high was set) to 30%. Fewer coins are moving on-chain. Selling pressure has eased. Short-term supply looks weaker.
At the same time, annual NAA has climbed. From 30% at the $80K level to 40% now. That means more long-term holders are willing to take profits at higher prices.
For context, peak selling hit in September 2023. NAA touched 85%. Bitcoin traded at just $37K then.
So what’s changed? The seller base is expanding, but slowly. It’s no longer early stage. It’s mid-stage now.
Coingecko’s latest research shows a clear pattern:
All post-halving all-time highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 came late in the year. November or December.
If August was the top, this cycle may have peaked early.
But history hints at something else.
If the timeline follows 2017 or 2021, another ATH could arrive between late Sept and late Oct 2025.
The Federal Reserve’s September decision could be the trigger.
NAA trends point to less short-term selling pressure. That’s bullish.
But rising annual NAA shows long-term holders are eyeing exits at higher prices. That’s supply waiting overhead.
Previous cycles suggest ATHs come late in the year. But this cycle already gave us two record highs:
If the Fed goes dovish in September, another run could happen before year-end.
The first three cycles followed the Halving-to-ATH template almost perfectly. Late-year tops. Lengthening timelines.
This time, the script flipped:
The data suggests the market is maturing. Holders are patient. Selling pressure builds slower now.
But one thing hasn’t changed: big moves often come around key macro events. The Fed’s September call might decide if we see one more high.
Until then, address activity tells the story. Less short-term selling. More long-term positioning.
Bitcoin sits mid-cycle. The next few months will decide if August was the top, or just another step higher.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
