Analysts are split on whether the drop represents a cycle low or a pause before further downside.
Bitcoin’s sharp correction at the start of the month may represent a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, according to new research from Kaiko Research.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $59,930 on Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024 and before the re-election of US President Donald Trump, according to TradingView data.
The decline suggests the market has moved out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into what Kaiko described as a historically typical bear market period that lasts roughly 12 months before a new accumulation phase begins.
In a research note shared with Cointelegraph on Monday, Kaiko said Bitcoin’s 32% crash was the most significant correction since the 2024 Bitcoin halving and may mark the “halfway point” of the current bear market.
“Analysis of on-chain metrics and comparative performance across tokens reveals a market approaching critical technical support levels that will determine whether the four-year cycle framework remains intact,” Kaiko said.
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Kaiko’s report highlighted several emerging onchain bear market signals, including a 30% drop in aggregate spot crypto trading volume across the 10 leading centralized exchanges, from around $1 trillion in October 2025 down to $700 billion in November.
At the same time, combined Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) futures open interest declined from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week, a 14% reduction that Kaiko said reflects ongoing deleveraging.
While Bitcoin has realigned with the historical four-year halving cycle since the beginning of the year, determining the depth of the current bear market is complex, as “many catalysts that fueled BTC’s rally to $126,000 are still in effect,” said Shawn Young, chief analyst, MEXC Research.
“With oversold indicators emerging on multiple timeframes, the rebound conversation around BTC is more a question of when, not if,” Young said, adding that Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle that will only become clear over the next year.
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The key question for investors is whether the dip to $60,000 represents the low of the current bear market. The level roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which has historically acted as long-term support.
However, more market volatility is expected in the absence of crypto-specific market catalysts, Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph, adding:
“With that said, it is still very hard to say if it means we are going back to the conventional 4-year cycle. I have seen many prominent figures in the space air the idea, but equally many who do not think so.”
However, Kaiko pointed to a 52% retracement from Bitcoin’s previous all-time high being “unusually shallow” compared to previous bear market cycles.
A 60% to 68% retracement would “align more closely” with historical drawdowns, which implies a Bitcoin cycle bottom around $40,000 to $50,000, Kaiko said.
Still, some market participants argue that $60,000 already marked a local bottom. Analyst and MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe called the crash to $60,000 the local market bottom for Bitcoin’s price, citing a record low in investor sentiment and a critical low in the Relative Strength Index, which sank to values last seen in 2018 and 2020.
