Bitcoin’s latest rally is breaking with historical patterns, and one key indicator may reveal why investors are holding steady—even near record highs.
In a July 23 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain points out a crucial shift in Bitcoin’s behavior in 2025. Unlike in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s exchange inflows have remained unusually low, even after reaching a new all-time high of $122,838 on July 14.
This trend suggests that large holders aren’t preparing to sell, as shown by the Bitcoin Flow Pulse indicator, which tracks investor activity around exchange movements. In past cycles, peaks were accompanied by rising inflows and sharp corrections. But so far in 2025, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating, indicating strong investor confidence.
Arab Chain cautions that a sudden spike in the Flow Pulse could serve as an early warning of a potential sell-off. For now, however, the indicator continues to signal strength in the uptrend.
Bitcoin could be nearing an overheated phase in its bull run
Another CryptoQuant model cited by Arab Chain — the Bitcoin Bull and Bear Market Cycle indicator — suggests the market is currently in an overheated bullish phase. Historically, this stage has preceded short-term surges followed by notable corrections.
While long-term trend signals like the 30- and 365-day moving averages remain bullish, Arab Chain advises caution for new buyers, recommending they wait for a clearer pullback. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,830, up 12% for the month but down 4% from its recent peak.
Bitcoin market outlook
Bitcoin is currently trading near the upper end of its Bollinger Bands, with the upper band at $124,041 and the middle band—acting as a strong support level—around $115,955. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below 60, indicating neutral momentum. However, short-term moving averages are signaling caution, as both the 10-day EMA and SMA have slipped above the current price, suggesting potential short-term weakness.
Longer-term indicators remain bullish, with the ongoing uptrend supported by the positive alignment of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. However, short-term signals like the MACD and Momentum indicators are showing bearish pressure, hinting at potential pullbacks without suggesting a full trend reversal.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the $120,000 level and break above the upper Bollinger Band at $124,041, a retest of the all-time high at $122,838—and potentially new highs—becomes increasingly likely. On the downside, a drop below $115,000 could lead to a test of deeper support near $111,000.
A break beneath that level, especially alongside rising exchange inflows, could mark the beginning of a more significant correction.
