The “fast-moving retail crowd” is one of the reasons Bitcoin is ending the year lower than it started, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
Bitcoin may post steady returns over the next ten years, but exceptionally large year-on-year gains are unlikely, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns. It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down,” Hougan said on CNBC on Friday.
Hougan is sticking with his forecast that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin (BTC), an outlook he first shared in July ahead of Bitcoin’s run to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October. “I think next year will be up,” Hougan said.
Meanwhile, ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said it is still unclear whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is “dead.” “All-time highs were 125,000, that was in early October, we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly, pretty painful,” Beau said.
Market participants are divided on whether the cycle has ended, with the timing of Bitcoin’s October highs mirroring past four-year cycle peaks, suggesting a possible down year in 2026.
Hougan said the “fast-moving retail crowd” is one reason behind Bitcoin’s year-end decline, as retail investors rotated out in “anticipation of that four-year cycle.”
Bitcoin is trading at $87,818 at the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Hougan said that Bitcoin is down 30%, rather than the 60% declines seen in past cycles, because of “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”
However, some analysts are still cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Bitcoin began 2025 by reaching new all-time highs near $109,000 following Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, which was was widely seen as a catalyst of the asset’s early-year rally.
However, Hougan said that the Trump administration is unlikely to provide much more upside for Bitcoin’s price. “There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin,” Hougan said, pointing to clearer regulatory positioning of the asset.
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Beau shared a similar view. “We know it is a commodity asset and that has been spelled out by the SEC,” he said.
