A dominant narrative about Bitcoin whales quietly hoarding BTC and bracing for a breakout has been upended by new on-chain analytics, which instead hint there is ongoing distribution among the largest holders — potentially dampening near-term bullish sentiment.
Despite recent headlines proclaiming that large BTC wallets have been aggressively buying the dip, deeper blockchain data reveals a more nuanced reality.
The head of research at the platform, Julius Moreno, cautioned that what appears to be whale accumulation is actually exchange-related activity inflating perceptions of buying. Exchanges frequently reorganize funds into other wallets, thereby increasing the number of wallets with massive balances.
Moreno commented on X: “No, whales are not buying an enormous amount of Bitcoin. Most BTC whale data out there has been ‘affected’ by exchanges consolidating a lot of their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances. This is why whales seem to have accumulated a lot of coins recently.”
Blockchain analytics firms report that long-term Bitcoin holders — wallets that have held their BTC for extended periods — have shifted back into net distribution after a prolonged accumulation phase.
Moreno noted that adjusted data show that large holders are still in distribution mode, and not accumulation. The data also shows a continued drop in whale holdings, alongside falling balances among 100-1,000 BTC addresses, suggesting ETF outflows persist.
Large holders typically make significant changes in the Bitcoin price; however, the market structure is adapting with the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become substantial market participants. Aside from questions about whale accumulation, sentiment among long-term BTC holders has improved, as indicated by other onchain metrics.
According to Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, long-term Bitcoin holders have once again begun buying after suffering the biggest selling period in years. The trend suggests that the recent selling pressure on BTC might be beginning to ease. The recovery of Bitcoin remains tentative, although downside pressure to date hasn’t forced prices back to the sub-$80,000 range seen in November. BTC is currently trading just above the $90,000 mark.
Nonetheless, Bollinger Bands, a key volatility gauge, suggest that a major price swing may be imminent.TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands — the volatility bands set two standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average — have tightened to under $3,500, the narrowest since July.
Back in late July, a Bollinger Band squeeze capped a two-week consolidation between $115,000 and $120,000, marking the start of a three-month price expansion that ranged from $100,000 to $126,000. A similar pattern emerged in late February, with Bitcoin consolidating between $94,000 and $98,000 before a Bollinger Band squeeze preceded a decline to $80,000.
The social media predictor and self-proclaimed world’s smartest man, Kim, recently predicted that BTC could jump past $270,000 within a month next year. According to reports, the predictor cited both the growth and fragility of fiat currencies as reasons for his optimistic outlook, noting Bitcoin’s historical volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.
The social media personality has made several Bitcoin forecasts in the past that have not held up. He predicted in November that Bitcoin would more than double to $220,000 within 45 days, pledging any future profits toward church construction, yet the price surge never materialized.
In addition to his bullish calls, Kim said BTC could replace the US dollar by 2026, labeling the current low as a short-term, manipulation-driven discount.
Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It’s free.
