Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are growing cautious as institutional demand for BTC futures softens, though other indicators suggest the price may hold above $85,000.
Key takeaways:
- BTC futures open interest dropped to $42 billion, an eight-month low, pointing to a leverage flush rather than fresh bearish positioning.
- Meanwhile, Bitcoin options pricing signals stabilizing sentiment.
Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to its lowest level in eight months after BTC was rejected near the $89,000 mark.
The brief push toward $89,000 on Friday quickly reversed, catching traders off guard and triggering more than $260 million in liquidations across leveraged Bitcoin futures positions.
Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges slid to $42 billion on Friday, down from $47 billion two weeks earlier, marking its lowest level in eight months. Even so, the reduction in leverage is not necessarily bearish, as futures markets always balance long and short positions.
Investor caution deepened after spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of outflows totaling $825 million. Although this figure represents less than 1% of the roughly $116 billion in total inflows, traders worry that the bullish momentum seen in October has stalled amid growing global economic uncertainty.
Precious metals surge on macro concerns
Gold and silver pushed to fresh all-time highs on Friday as investors sought safe-haven assets in response to rising US debt levels. Demand for government bonds also increased, sending yields on the 10-year US Treasury down to a three-week low of 4.12%. Market skepticism toward US monetary policy has been fueled in part by mixed signals surrounding potential import tariffs.
President Donald Trump’s administration announced on Tuesday that tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports have been delayed until June 2027.
A week earlier, the US government also removed export restrictions on Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chips destined for China. Those curbs had been imposed under the Joe Biden administration over national security concerns, Reuters reported.
Bitcoin’s basis rate shows signs of recovery
The monthly futures premium on Bitcoin is often used to gauge sentiment among whales and market makers. In neutral market conditions, BTC futures typically trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10% — known as the basis rate — to account for the longer settlement period.
Given Bitcoin’s repeated inability to reclaim the $90,000 level since Oct. 12, some degree of pessimism, reflected in a compressed basis, was to be expected.
However, Bitcoin’s futures basis rate held at 5% on Friday, unchanged from the previous week. While this level still reflects a mildly bearish bias, it marks an improvement from the sub-4% readings seen on Dec. 18, when Bitcoin slipped below $85,000.
At the same time, activity in the Bitcoin options market offers additional insight into whether whales and market makers are positioning for further downside.
The delta skew compares the cost of put (sell) options with call (buy) options. When market sentiment deteriorates, the metric typically rises above the neutral 6% level, while bullish conditions often push it into negative territory.
Despite concerns about slowing economic growth, Bitcoin continues to trade like a risk-on asset, in contrast to gold and silver, which have rallied. Still, the drop in BTC futures and options open interest, combined with roughly 1% net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, does not on its own point to a prolonged bear market—especially while options indicators and the futures basis remain relatively stable.
While a retest of the $85,000 support zone cannot be ruled out, signs suggest bulls are slowly rebuilding confidence, even if Bitcoin struggles to clear the $90,000 level in the short term.
