Bitcoin has underperformed both gold and the S&P 500 over the past year, even as traditional assets hover near record highs.
Data comparing returns since early 2025 shows a clear divergence. Gold has surged more than 80% over the period, repeatedly printing new highs. The S&P 500 has climbed steadily, posting gains of roughly 15% while maintaining structural strength.
Bitcoin, however, has struggled to keep pace. Instead of acting as a consistent “digital gold” hedge during heightened geopolitical tension, BTC has delivered negative returns over the same timeframe, drifting significantly below its 2025 starting point.
The Digital Gold Narrative Faces a Test
Periods of elevated geopolitical uncertainty often favor defensive assets. Gold has clearly benefited from that environment. Bitcoin, by contrast, has not demonstrated the same sustained safe-haven behavior many proponents expected.
While BTC occasionally reacts positively to macro shocks, those moves have lacked consistency and follow-through. The performance gap suggests that capital continues to view Bitcoin more as a high-beta risk asset than a defensive store of value.
Crypto Risk Appetite Remains Tight
The divergence also reflects broader compression in crypto risk appetite. With Bitcoin underperforming and large-cap altcoins struggling to build momentum, liquidity remains selective.
In past cycles, Bitcoin strength has often preceded broader expansion across digital assets. The current lag versus equities and gold highlights a cautious institutional stance and reduced speculative positioning.
For Bitcoin to reclaim the “digital gold” narrative in a meaningful way, it would likely need to outperform during macro stress events rather than merely react to them. Until that shift materializes, traditional safe havens appear to be capturing the bulk of defensive capital.
