Bitcoin’s long-standing narrative as “digital gold” is being put to the test as its recent price action increasingly resembles that of a high-risk growth asset rather than a traditional safe haven, according to new research from Grayscale.
Report author Zach Pandl said on Tuesday that while Grayscale still views Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store of value due to its fixed supply and independence from central banking authorities, recent market behavior suggests otherwise.
“Bitcoin’s short-term price movements have not been tightly correlated with gold or other precious metals,” Pandl wrote, pointing to record rallies in bullion and silver prices.
Instead, the analysis found that Bitcoin has developed a strong correlation with software stocks, particularly since early 2024. That sector has recently come under intense selling pressure amid concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt or render many software services obsolete.
The report suggests Bitcoin’s growing sensitivity to equities and growth assets reflects its deeper integration into traditional financial markets, driven in part by institutional participation, exchange-traded fund activity and shifting macroeconomic risk sentiment.
The shift comes as Bitcoin has experienced about a 50% drawdown from its October peak above $126,000. The decline unfolded in several waves, beginning with a historic October 2025 liquidation event, followed by renewed selling in late November and again in late January 2026. Grayscale also pointed to “motivated US sellers” in recent weeks, citing persistent price discounts on Coinbase.
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Bitcoin’s recent failure to live up to its safe-haven narrative should not be viewed as a setback but rather as part of the asset’s ongoing evolution, according to Grayscale.
Pandl said it would have been unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to displace gold as a monetary asset in such a short period.
“Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and served as the backbone of the international monetary system until the early 1970s,” Pandl wrote.
While Bitcoin’s failure to reach similar monetary status is “central to the investment thesis,” he said, it could evolve in that direction over time as the global economy becomes increasingly digitized through artificial intelligence, autonomous agents and tokenized financial markets.
In the near term, Bitcoin’s recovery may depend on fresh capital entering the market, either through renewed ETF inflows or a return of retail investors. Market maker Wintermute said retail participation has recently been concentrated in AI-related stocks and growth narratives, limiting near-term demand for crypto assets.
