Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) surged past $73,000 on Tuesday as $320 million in short positions were liquidated across exchanges, according to CoinGlass data.
The squeeze caught late sellers off guard after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28 and sent oil spiking.
Arthur Hayes’ Bull Case
Hayes laid out his thesis in a March 1 essay titled “iOS Warfare.”
Every major U.S. military engagement in the Middle East since 1985 was followed by Fed rate cuts or monetary expansion, he argued.
His conclusion: prolonged Iranian nation-building equals more printing, which equals higher BTC.
Polymarket’s ceasefire contract, with $11.1 million in volume, prices a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 31 at 66% and by June 30 at 70%. The longer the conflict drags on without resolution, the more Hayes’ thesis could gain traction.
The $70,000 Battle Zone
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen projects a potential March target around $74,000 based on midterm-year historical patterns, but warns it may be a bull trap before further weakness into spring.
The $74,000 zone acted as major structural support in April 2025, and broken support often flips into resistance.
Nexo research analyst Dessislava Ianeva flagged $70,000 to $70,800 as the key zone BTC needs to clear.
Trading volumes in 2026 are down roughly 17% versus the 2025 average, she noted, and open interest has dropped 43% since January.
The structure is improving, but conviction is not fully back.
Polymarket’s March BTC price contract has drawn $14 million in volume, and an $80,000 target currently trades at 51%. It prices the chance of a crash back down to $65,000 at 44%.
Why It Matters
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $458 million on Monday, one of the quarter’s strongest inflow days.
IShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) accounted for roughly half. That institutional bid may decide whether $70,000 holds.
The broader crypto backdrop is shifting.
President Trump on Tuesday called for swift passage of the CLARITY Act, accusing banks of holding the legislation hostage.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called it “an extremely pointed message” to those stalling crypto regulation.
If the bill advances, it could provide a tailwind for BTC at a moment when the asset badly needs one.
The year so far has been brutal for crypto. BTC is down over 40% from its October high of $126,000. Gold has rallied 22% over the same period.
Analysts have speculated that retail traders are already rotating out of crypto and into equities. Whether the Iran conflict drags on long enough to force the Fed’s hand, the core of Hayes’ thesis, could determine if BTC reclaims the “digital gold” narrative or loses it for good.
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