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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holding above $112,000 has market commentators speculating if it can defend key support levels for a potential Q4 rally.
What Happened: In his latest podcast, prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin to hold its bull market support band near $110,000 through September, despite the month historically showing weakness.
He noted that early September volatility may persist, but initial lows could mark the monthly bottom.
BTC positioning resembles 2020, when it hovered near the 20-week SMA before rallying in October.
Holding these levels could pave the way for the next leg of the post-halving bull market.
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Altcoins, particularly Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), are undergoing corrections to their 20-21-week moving averages.
ETH may decline roughly 20% to its 21-week EMA before resuming a rally toward new highs.
Other altcoins like Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) have already corrected.
Seasonal trends indicate altcoins typically peak in late August, and Cowen notes sustainable rallies require ETH surpassing $5,000, which is unlikely under current headwinds.
This underscores the focus on Bitcoin during the ongoing corrections.
Seasonal trends show altcoins typically top in late August. Sustainable altcoin rallies require Ethereum to surpass $5,000, which Cowen considers unlikely during current seasonal headwinds.
This supports a focus on Bitcoin during the correction.
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What’s Next: Bitcoin dominance remains the key indicator for cycle continuation. Rising dominance signals BTC leadership, while declines may suggest the cycle is further along.
The 50-week SMA around $97,000 serves as ultimate support, weekly closes below it could end the post-halving cycle.
Cowen cautions that volatility and weakness may persist through September, in line with historical seasonal patterns that begin with early-month wicks followed by consolidation.
He anticipates September weakness resolving by early October, setting the stage for Q4 rallies.
For now, he recommends concentrating on Bitcoin, with altcoins expected to recover after completing their corrections, paving the way for the cycle’s final parabolic phase.
