Post-halving decline pattern is no longer applicable, the bank suggests.
Bitcoin’s price outlook continues to strengthen as institutional players pour in. Standard Chartered now expects the top cryptocurrency to reach $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025. The forecast comes amid record ETF inflows and renewed corporate treasury accumulation.
Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate treasuries accumulated approximately 245,000 BTC in Q2 2025. Standard Chartered projects this figure will rise in both Q3 and Q4. The bank highlighted increased participation from non-MicroStrategy treasuries, signaling broad institutional adoption.
While Michael Saylor’s firm slowed its pace, new entrants helped fill the gap. Passive investment products continued to attract consistent flows despite occasional outflows. As a result, ETF buying remains the dominant market driver into the second half of the year.
Recent ETF data from SoSoValue shows $342.3 million in outflows on July 1, breaking a 15-day inflow streak. However, this accounts for only 7% of the $4.8 billion that entered during that period. Standard Chartered remains confident that net inflows will persist.
The bank dismissed the historic post-halving slump narrative for 2025. In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically peaked and declined about 18 months after each halving event. However, analysts now argue that ETF and treasury flows are strong enough to break that trend.
The latest data shows long-term holders are less likely to sell amid institutional accumulation. With liquidity flowing through regulated financial products, BTC’s price momentum now follows demand rather than supply narratives. This shift marks a structural change in Bitcoin’s market mechanics.
Standard Chartered’s model also factors in macro catalysts like a potential Fed leadership change and U.S. stablecoin legislation. These developments may create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin investment in H2. The combination of regulatory clarity and strong inflows presents a bullish backdrop.
Technical indicators further reinforce the bullish narrative. A recent Ichimoku analysis shows a confirmed golden cross near the $104,000 range, suggesting upward momentum. Price action also bounced from cloud support, indicating strong buying interest around key levels.
Bitcoin’s market dominance climbed past 60% in June, as shown in analysis by Axel Adler Jr. The chart highlights a rising trend since early 2023, pointing to a macro rotation into BTC. Altcoins have seen relatively weak performance, as institutional focus remains fixed on Bitcoin.
ETF inflows outpaced gold ETFs in Q2, marking a clear shift in investor preference during global uncertainty. Hedge fund activity in futures markets stayed flat, meaning most ETF buying remains unhedged. This unhedged demand strengthens the price floor going into Q3.
