Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hovering under $110,000 has traders debating whether support will hold or a drop below $100,000 is imminent.
What Happened: Position trader Bob Loukas noted on X that Bitcoin is approaching its Weekly Cycle Low, five weeks after peaking.
While $118,000 would confirm a new cycle, short-term control remains with the bears.
Loukas highlighted that BTC failed to break its all-time highs in mid-August, signaling the weekly cycle peaked around Week 18.
Despite this, he remains bullish on the late-stage 4-year cycle, citing altcoins holding up as BTC dominance drops — a classic late-cycle pattern.
Trader Joe Consorti pointed out that Bitcoin endured $2.75 billion in long liquidations across just four days, two of the three largest events of 2025.
CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten drew parallels to September 2024: Bitcoin trended higher, then fell 11% after losing the trend line, consolidated for two weeks, and broke higher in mid-October, without breaching the early September lows.
Also Read: Bitcoin Tumbles To $111,000: Bear Market Beginnings Or Still A Bull Market Dip?
Why It Matters: Prediction markets show traders now see a 61% chance of Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 before 2026, up from 41% last week.
Similarly, the probability of BTC hitting $100,000 before $130,000 has jumped to 61% from 36% as of Sep. 19.
These predictions come on the heels of a major options expiry today, with over $22.3 billion set to expire on Deribit.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said BlackRock has registered the iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF, a covered call strategy designed to generate yield for Bitcoin holders.
This product would complement its iShares Bitcoin ETF IBIT, which has seen $60.7 billion in inflows since January 2024.
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$BTCBitcoin – United States dollar
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