Following a rather turbulent trading week, Bitcoin prices now sit below $110,000, representing a 12% decline from its all-time high at $124,457. Amid this situation, popular analyst Ted Pillows has shared an audacious market prediction that would douse fears of an impending cycle top.
A typical crypto market cycle has always peaked in Q4 of the fourth year. This timing usually matches the post-halving hype and a strong wave of retail and institutional market demand. Such behavior is observed in the last two cycles when Bitcoin reached a market top of $19,700 in December 2017, and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Ted Pillows postulates the present market is likely to present a different pattern, which aligns with the US business cycle.
Generally, the US business policy centered around liquidity, interest rates, and inflation all play a heavy role in Bitcoin demand. Notably, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and market analysts expect the monetary authority to maintain this dovish approach for the next six months. In particular, JP Morgan predicts the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026. This drop in interest rates is expected to boost investors’ access to liquidity through borrowing and support investments in risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has also changed the structure of inflows. Notably, these investments have improved the ease of institutional investment in Bitcoin, with the present cumulative ETF inflows valued at $57.23 billion. Importantly, these heavy inflows, coupled with the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, have all contributed to maturing the Bitcoin market that is now likely to be driven by macroeconomic cycles rather than the traditional crypto-native cycles.
If US market forces prove dominant, Ted Pillows expects Bitcoin to reach a market peak in Q1 or Q2 2026, indicating the potential for higher price targets despite recent price drops.
Over the last few hours, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience in bouncing off the $109,000 price support. According to a separate analysis post by Pillows, the premier cryptocurrency is now likely headed to reclaim the $112,000 resistance price level.
If market bulls successfully overcome this barrier, further analysis suggests a potential rise to $117,000. Alternatively, another retest of $109,000 could result in a decisive break below this support level, pushing prices as low as $101,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $109,420, reflecting a decline of 0.25% in the past day.
