Bitcoin heads into the end of February on new local lows as $50,000 BTC price targets stay in place.
- Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure into the weekly close, with analysts warning that recent rebound attempts continue to lose momentum.
- Rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on global markets, as tariff uncertainty dampens investor sentiment.
- Large Bitcoin holders are driving exchange inflows, fueling expectations of another test of the $60,000 level.
- Onchain metrics suggest BTC price action is mirroring patterns seen during the 2022 bear market.
- Overall crypto sentiment has slumped to extreme lows, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to just 5 out of 100.
Bitcoin dips under $65,000 at weekly close
Bitcoin encountered immediate selling pressure into Sunday’s weekly close, pushing the price below $65,000 before staging a slight rebound.
According to data from TradingView, BTC/USD hit a local low of $64,258 on Bitstamp and remained down nearly 3% at the time of writing.
If you’d like, I can also tighten this into a sharper headline-style brief.
Commenting on the move, X-based trading account Castillo Trading expressed optimism that the recent lows could offer an attractive long entry. In a Monday post, it noted that Bitcoin had returned to its naked point-of-control (nPOC) — a high-volume price area that had not yet been retested.
The nPOC at $64,979 stands out as one of several key levels highlighted by the account, with an accompanying chart projecting a potential rebound toward $78,200.
Continuing, fellow trader BitBull flagged $76,000 as a potential upside target before another BTC price dip.
Remaining firmly bearish, trader Roman said he continues to expect fresh macro lows, currently targeting the $50,000 level.
“Rising volume alongside falling price is the definition of strong bearish price action,” he told his followers on X on Monday.
“We should expect trend to continue lower, especially to 50-52k area. Likely get a bounce there but ultimately I’m expecting lower after that.”
Latest data from CoinGlass shows that liquidations across the crypto market remain elevated, extending a trend seen in recent weeks. Total liquidations reached nearly $500 million in the 24 hours at the time of writing.
Markets “on edge” amid tariffs and geopolitical tensions
A mix of geopolitical strain and persistent inflation concerns is expected to create volatile conditions for crypto and broader risk assets this week.
Tensions surrounding Iran are adding to market anxiety as investors digest fresh global trade tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. After the Supreme Court of the United States ruled certain tariff measures illegal last week, Trump pledged to push back. US stock futures began the week lower following news of a proposed 15% replacement tariff.
“We have a busy week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter told followers on X, describing markets as “on edge.”
Bitcoin mirrored the cautious tone, remaining under pressure into Monday’s Wall Street open and prompting warnings of additional downside.
“It’s possible that over the next two weekends, the US-Iran conflict escalates as a way to divert attention from the Supreme Court ruling that declared the previous tariffs illegal. Bearish uncertainty,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread analyzing BTC price action.
CrypNuevo suggested that BTC/USD could attempt to fill its early February daily wick below $60,000, adding, “I think price could reach $61K within two to three weeks (−10%).”
Later this week, markets will turn their attention to January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release, after the previous two readings both exceeded expectations.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data also pointed to accelerating inflation.
“A key report on consumer inflation showed the Fed’s preferred gauge remaining well above target and rising at its fastest pace since last February,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“The rally in commodity indexes threatens further upside pressure on inflation.”
Whale inflows signal risk of “significant selling”
Bitcoin whales may be preparing for renewed distribution, according to fresh analysis of exchange flow data.
In a Quicktake blog post for onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, contributor GugaOnChain reported that large holders continue transferring sizable amounts of BTC to exchanges.
Exchange inflows are currently dominated by whales, with CryptoQuant’s Exchange Whale Ratio climbing to 70%.
“Historically, readings above 70% have preceded significant selling waves, as whales move funds to exchanges to take profits,” GugaOnChain noted.
“At the same time, an atypical movement is observed: old coins are returning to platforms in large volume, while short-term holders continue to realize losses, creating a hybrid supply scenario that tends to push Bitcoin’s price toward lower levels.”
The current setup reflects what analysts describe as “strategic tension” — motivated sellers increasing BTC supply on exchanges, while limited buyer demand steps in to absorb it.
GugaOnChain expects an “imminent flush toward Bitcoin’s immediate support in the $60K region.”
“With supply expanding, caution is warranted,” he concluded.
2022 bear market comparison resurfaces
As parallels with the 2022 downturn continue to build, a key Bitcoin price metric is raising fresh concerns.
Analysis from CryptoQuant highlights a growing “bearish confluence” between price action and onchain indicators, particularly around the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP).
During the early February decline, Bitcoin closed below its AVWAP — the level representing the highest average traded volume measured from the 2024 block subsidy halving.
“The last time we saw a similar bearish confluence following an all-time high was in May 2022,” contributor Facundo Fama noted.
An accompanying chart also referenced one of CryptoQuant’s proprietary metrics, which tracks the growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to its realized capitalization. The indicator currently sits deep within bear market territory.
Earlier coverage by Cointelegraph highlighted multiple realized price levels now being closely watched as BTC/USD searches for its next long-term support zone.
Crypto sentiment sinks to historic lows
While Bitcoin may not have revisited its 15-month lows from earlier this month, overall market sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.
That mood is reflected in the latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a widely followed gauge that continues to diverge sharply from its traditional finance counterpart.
On Monday, the index dropped to just 5 out of 100 — firmly in “extreme fear” territory and matching its lowest level on record.
“People have given up,” independent analyst Cryptoinsightuk commented on X.
“I had never seen a 5 on Fear and greed index before this past month. Now I’ve seen multiple.”
Pseudonymous trader and investor BitcoinHyper added that crypto has now spent longer in the “extreme fear” zone than at any point since the 2022 bear market.
The standard Fear & Greed Index, which covers stocks, currently sits just inside “fear” territory at 43/100. When sentiment first hit 5/100, regular Fear & Greed bottomed out at 33/100 before rebounding.
