After last week’s drop, Bitcoin broke below key support and is now retesting that zone. The big question: will this turn into a deeper correction, or can BTC reclaim support for another push higher?
Selling pressure stayed heavy last week. On Aug 19 and Aug 22, profit-taking increased alongside leverage washouts. Cumulative short liquidations reached about $3.7 billion, while long liquidations were around $48 million. Both were higher than the prior week, highlighting stronger pressure on positioning.
Figure 1: Bitcoin Realized Profit – from IUX coinglass.com
Figure 2: Binance BTC/USDT liquidation – from IUX coinglass.com
ETF flows flipped from a sharp outflow on Aug 22 to modest inflows on Aug 25-26. But the scale wasn’t enough to spark a strong rebound, highlighting how institutions are still cautious after July’s record inflows.
Figure 3: Spot Bitcoin ETF Flow (USD) – from coinglass.com
Regulatory headlines continue to weigh on sentiment. The SEC’s probe into Alt5 Sigma has spilled into politics, with calls for broader reviews. This uncertainty makes investors hesitant to commit fresh capital.
Markets now look to U.S. GDP (Aug 28) and Core PCE (Aug 30). Softer growth and inflation would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts, pushing yields and the dollar lower, supportive for BTC. Stronger data, however, could lift the dollar and pressure risk assets.
Figure 4: BTCUSD Chart – Aug 27, 2025, from IUX
The cluster chart shows buyers trying to bottom-fish, lifting BTC back to test resistance. But Cumulative Delta hasn’t diverged from price, sellers remain more aggressive than buyers. Without stronger buy imbalances, BTC risks either drifting sideways or extending its decline until new demand steps in.
Figure 5: BTCUSDT Perpetual Futures Cluster Chart, from coinmap.tech
