Current fair value sits near $99,000, framing a potential recovery target in the $96,000-$99,000 zone if sentiment and liquidity improve.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,000 on November 25, with on-chain and derivatives indices hinting that the month-long bearish phase may be nearing a key inflection point.
Analysts now anticipate a potential recovery window between $96,000 and $99,000, with weak investors exiting the market and liquidity, rather than narratives, beginning to drive the next big move.
On-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. reported on Tuesday that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has been lodged in negative territory since November 11, indicating sustained selling pressure.
However, a short-term reversal is now in motion, with the metric improving from a deeply negative -43% to around -20%. This, according to the analyst, points to a clear reduction in bearish momentum.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index is still stuck in a bearish zone near 41, which is still below the 45-55 band Adler associates with a more neutral or bullish backdrop. According to him, until that level is cleared, “upward momentum is unlikely.”
Adding to that, the current fair-value line is sitting near $99,000 and has left a visible $11,000 gap to spot, framing a recovery target between $96,000 and $99,000 if sentiment improves.
Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades also offered proof that pressure may indeed be easing, pointing out that the Coinbase premium, which had been deeply negative for weeks, moved back toward neutral over the weekend after heavy selling hit a local bottom last Friday.
Nonetheless, short-term structure remains fragile, with Titan of Crypto identifying $88,700 as the first level bulls need to reclaim. Meanwhile, analyst Ed_NL highlighted a “red box” resistance zone near $93,500 that could either cap a three-leg bounce before new lows or form the base for a fifth wave higher if buyers regain control.
Looking at the market, Bitcoin was up slightly at the time of writing, gaining a modest 1% in the last 24 hours. However, it remains in the red across all other timeframes, dipping nearly 5% over seven days and 18% across two weeks.
Additionally, it has lost 23% of its value this past month and is currently sitting about 30% below its all-time high of over $126,000, reached in October.
The recent downturn has been characterized by a distinct “institutional redistribution,” where the largest whale cohorts, specifically those holding between 1,000 and 10,000+ BTC, have been consistent net sellers, taking profits and creating a persistent headwind for any significant rally.
At the same time, data from Santiment shows the number of wallets holding 100 BTC or more has increased by 0.47% since November 11, adding 91 new wallets to this tier. This shows accumulation is happening, but primarily in the mid-sized whale category of 10 to 1,000 BTC holders, rather than the very largest.
