February 25 — Bitcoin surged 3% in 15 minutes this morning, topping $66k, per HTX market data. Ethereum rebounded above $1,900, while SOL climbed past $80. As of press time, Coinglass data shows $129M in total liquidations across the network over the past 4 hours — $4.73M in long liquidations vs. $125M in short liquidations. While Bitcoin and Ethereum funding rates flipped positive post-rally (still leaning bearish), most altcoins still have negative rates, keeping mainstream CEX/DEX funding tilted bearish. Coinbase Institutional (its institutional arm) released a report earlier today: Bitcoin has support at $60k and strong resistance at $82k. Negative gamma is concentrated in the $60k-$70k range, while positive gamma clusters above $85k and $90k. A move to $90k could trigger consolidation; a drop to $60k may accelerate declines. Independent analyst Axel notes Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap HODL Waves” data shows supply is shrinking — but capital hasn’t returned yet. The biggest hodler cohort is made up of peak buyers currently underwater; their trapped positions have turned them into “strong holders,” and there’s no new capital flowing in. Until these two conditions change, the market stays in defensive mode. Polymarket data puts the probability of Bitcoin hitting $68k between Feb 23 and March 1 at 65%.
