BTC recovers from 65k but gains remain capped below 70k Software stocks & BTC follow the same trajectory AI worries weigh on Software & BTC Macro drivers – NFP, CPI BTC technical analysis
Bitcoin is consolidating around 67k after a three-day losing streak, recovering from yesterday’s 65k low. However, trading activity remains subdued and liquidity conditions are thin. Major altcoins are also attempting to stabilise, with Ethereum up 1.5% over the past 24 hours and Ripple gaining 2.2%. Total crypto market capitalisation has edged 1.1% higher to $2.3 trillion.
Bitcoin rebounded from the 60k, 15-month low last week, but that recovery stalled at 70k and has struggled since amid clear headwinds. The Fear and Greed Index is at a record low.
Concerns surrounding AI-driven disruption in the software sector have weighed on crypto sentiment. While Bitcoin has long been viewed as a high-beta proxy for tech, recent data suggest the relationship is more concentrated. Over the past 18 months, BTC and the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) have moved in near lockstep, with a 30-day rolling correlation of 0.73 — indicating a strong positive relationship.
Software stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks as investors reassess which companies are positioned as AI beneficiaries versus potential casualties. The sector is increasingly viewed as vulnerable to disruption, prompting capital rotation into cyclical and “old economy” segments. The S&P 500 software sector declined 2.3% yesterday, mirroring Bitcoin’s 2.3% drop. Year-to-date, software stocks are down 20%, compared with BTC’s 17% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at a record high.
The parallel moves between these two asset classes also stem from common macroeconomic drivers. Both asset classes are highly sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy and rate decisions. Tight monetary policy reduces liquidity in financial markets, negatively impacting riak assets such as tech stocks and BTC.
Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll showed impressive job creation, falling unemployment, and higher wage growth, signalling a resilient labour market at the start of 2026. This prompted the markets to scale back Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. The market now expects the first rate cut this year in July, rather than in June, as was the case prior to the data release. This repricing of rate expectations presents an ongoing headwind for both growth equities and crypto.
Investors are now looking to US jobless claims data today, ahead of CPI inflation figures tomorrow, for further clues over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
The strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and software stocks carries important implications. BTC has often been positioned as a diversification tool or hedge against traditional equity exposure. However, the sustained synchronisation with high-growth tech challenges this view.
In tech-led selloffs or rotations away from growth and into value, Bitcoin may behave less like an alternative asset and more like an extension of the tech trade. Until liquidity conditions ease or sector leadership broadens, BTC’s performance is likely to remain closely tied to the direction of software stocks rather than trading independently of them.
BTC/USDT fell to a low of 60k on Friday before rebounding, but failed to meaningfully break above 70k. The primary trend remains bearish as BTC fades away from 70k; any price recovery should be treated with caution.
Sellers, supported by the RSI below 50, will look to extend declines to bring 60k back into play. Below 60k, ahead of 50k the psychological level.
Buyers would need to risk above 70k to bring 75k back into focus. However, a rise above 85k is needed to negate the near-term downtrend.
More analysis
