Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure
Bitcoin is once again testing investor conviction as it fights to stay above the $110,000 level following last Friday’s sharp correction that triggered a massive leverage wipeout across the market. After one of the most volatile sessions of the quarter, traders are watching closely to see whether BTC can stabilize or if more downside pressure will emerge.
According to on-chain data shared by Darkfost, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are continuing to exert significant pressure on the market. Their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) — a key metric tracking realized profits — currently stands at 2.32, showing that this group is selling coins at an average gain of over 130%.
Such elevated profitability levels often coincide with phases where long-term investors take profits after extended rallies, contributing to selling pressure and short-term weakness. Despite this, Bitcoin’s ability to defend its current range suggests underlying demand remains resilient.
Analyst Darkfost points out that while the Long-Term Holders’ (LTH) SOPR currently sits at 2.32, the shorter-term averages are starting to soften. The weekly SOPR (7-day moving average) has fallen to 1.82, and the monthly SOPR (30-day) sits at 1.79, both trending downward since the summer. Although these figures remain below the annual average of 2.25, they indicate a gradual cooling of realized profits — a sign that selling pressure may be easing.
This dynamic reflects a crucial transition point for Bitcoin’s market structure. As long-term holders continue to realize profits above 1.0, they’re selling coins at a gain, effectively capping momentum and weighing on price recovery. Yet, the current decline in SOPR averages hints that this wave of profit-taking may be nearing exhaustion. Historically, such drops in realized profit levels have preceded market stabilization and, eventually, recovery phases.
Darkfost highlights that the current setup closely resembles the October 2024 correction, when Bitcoin’s SOPR bottomed near similar levels before the next major upswing. If history rhymes, the ongoing contraction in LTH profitability could signal that the worst of the correction is behind us. Still, further moderation in SOPR remains key for the market to fully reset and for sustainable upside momentum to re-emerge.
