Upcoming U.S. economic data could determine future market movements.
Bitcoin, after the chaos in Davos yesterday, plunged to as low as $87,000 but has now surged above $90,000. While losses in altcoins are temporarily reversing, it might be too early to celebrate. As the U.S. PCE data is set to be released later today, what are analysts forecasting?
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Ali Martinez highlights the significance of the 730-day simple moving average (SMA) for Bitcoin, which is approximately $85,180. He is pleased that this level is being maintained, noting that historically significant market transitions have begun at this SMA. Bitcoin recently tested this threshold, and a previous breach resulted in a 55% loss.
If historical data yields similar results, the loss of this key level could see Bitcoin revert to the $56,000-$76,000 range. This outcome could have destructive consequences on altcoins.
Yesterday, Bitcoin dipped below the support trendline, but its recovery of this critical threshold may be a trap for bears, according to Washigorira. The previous day’s downward break was not confirmed, and regaining the bearish fair value gap (FVG) above is crucial. With today’s final GDP and Core PCE data releases, it might be Bitcoin’s time for a rebound.
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In 2025, discussions around tariffs were prominent, causing Bitcoin to decline at least ten times due to standoffs. Of course, each standoff was followed by gains triggered by subsequent agreements. Combining incidents like the Iran attack, we can say that the charts were largely influenced by Trump.
Bitcoin is now over $90,000 again because Trump retracted the proposed 10% EU tariffs after the Greenland agreement framework. U.S. stocks gained nearly $700 billion in a single session. As risk appetite returns, gold and silver have lost value.
Policy headlines move markets more rapidly than fundamental indicators. Trump always demands more but settles for less, and the same happened again. While it remains uncertain whether he will change his mind tomorrow, Trump signed a deal he was satisfied with, meaning that if terms remain unchanged, declines due to Greenland may end.
Today’s Fed’s chosen inflation indicator will be released, and though it may come in low, the Fed is unlikely to make a rate cut on January 28. Recovery in employment data has blocked this. However, if PCE comes in high, this could cause further declines in crypto due to rising inflation during employment recovery.
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