Bitcoin is falling for a second consecutive day after once again failing to break above the 95K level, which has proven to be a significant obstacle since early December. The price trades -2.5% over the past 24 hours, dropping to 89.8k. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has fallen 2.6% to $3.07 trillion as the early 2026 crypto rebound fizzles.
The move lower reflects profit-taking as risk assets across the board come under pressure and as investors look ahead to key US economic data. The pullback in Bitcoin has coincided with a negative close on the S&P 500 on Wednesday and softer US futures today.
Geopolitical risks remain in focus after the US intervened in Venezuela this week and captured President Maduro. President Trump has also ramped up his “national security-first” stance, proposing to increase defence spending by $500 billion in 2027. This spending plan could lead to higher deficits, potentially fueling the debasement trade into Bitcoin. However, it could also mean higher treasury issuance and stickier interest rates, which is a less favourable environment for crypto.
While geopolitics remain on the radar, attention is also turning to tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report, the first clean report since the US government shutdown. Expectations are for 60k jobs to be added in December after 64k in November. Unemployment is expected to tick lower to 4.6%.
Signs of persistent weakness in the labour market could support market expectations that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, lifting BTC. However, the data will come after yesterday’s ISM services PMI, which rose to 54.4 in December, a 14-month high. Strong growth in the most important sector in the US economy is significant, and when combined with weakening jobs data, sends mixed signals to the Federal Reserve. This could encourage the Fed to remain cautious about future rate cuts.
The Bitcoin price is also retreating from recent highs as institutional investors locked in profits following a strong start to the year. Data from SoSoValue US spot BTC ETFs registered $486 million in net outflows on Wednesday, adding to net outflows of $243 million on Tuesday. This marks a sharp reversal from the $1.2 billion in inflows seen in the first few days of trading in 2026.
Without persistent BTC ETF inflows, Bitcoin could struggle to sustain a move higher.
After once again facing rejection at around the 95k level, BTC rebounded lower, plunging below 90k brining the 50 SMA support into focus.
The RSI has dropped to 50. Should it decline further, this could accelerate the selloff below the 50 SMA at 89.1k, which would open the door to 85k, the 78.6% Fib retracement of the 74.4k low to 126.2k high.
On the upside, buyers would need to rise above 90k to bring 95k, the 61.8% Fib level into focus. A rise above here creates a higher high and brings 100k into play.
