Bitcoin could be on course for its weakest first-quarter performance in eight years, with the asset already down 22.3% since the beginning of the year.
Bitcoin started the year near $87,700 and has since fallen roughly $20,000 to around $68,000. If losses persist, it would mark the worst Q1 showing since the 2018 bear market, when the asset plunged nearly 50% in the first three months, according to CoinGlass.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed the first quarter in the red seven times out of the past thirteen years. Recent negative Q1 performances include a decline of 11.8% in 2025 and a 10.8% drop in 2020. The steepest first-quarter fall on record remains 2018, when Bitcoin tumbled 49.7%.
“The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature,” analyst Daan Trades Crypto said Sunday, noting that historical price action suggests weak Q1 performance does not necessarily dictate the rest of the year’s trajectory.
First-ever red January and February?
Bitcoin has recorded back-to-back first-quarter losses only twice before — during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
By comparison, Ether has posted negative returns in just three of the past nine first quarters. However, the current period is shaping up to be its third-worst Q1 on record, with losses of 34.3% so far.
Bitcoin is also on pace for its first-ever consecutive January and February declines. The asset fell 10.2% in January and is down another 13.4% so far this month. A move back above $80,000 would be required to avoid closing February in the red.
Bitcoin in a corrective phase
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the recent slide in Bitcoin’s price amid ongoing global economic uncertainty appears to reflect a normal correction rather than a structural shift in the asset’s long-term outlook.
He added that while macroeconomic headwinds could continue to weigh on prices in the short term, historical trends suggest Bitcoin has often rebounded strongly in subsequent months — particularly as institutional adoption grows and halving cycle dynamics reinforce its long-term potential.
Bitcoin has now logged its fifth consecutive weekly loss, slipping 2.3% over the past 24 hours to trade around $68,670 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
