Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% from its $126,200 high and is now trading just above the $85,000 support level, raising fears of a deeper correction toward $70,000. However, onchain data suggests that institutions and high-net-worth investors are using the dip to accumulate BTC.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin sharks have been accumulating at a pace last seen in 2012, pointing to strong dip-buying behavior.
- At the same time, sustained selling by long-term holders and early “OG” whales continues to limit upside momentum, leaving near-term downside risks elevated.
Mid-sized Bitcoin holders add 54,000 BTC in a week
Bitcoin “sharks” — wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC — boosted their combined balances from around 3.521 million BTC to approximately 3.575 million BTC over the past seven days. According to Glassnode, this group absorbed roughly 54,000 BTC from smaller holders during the period.
The surge represents the fastest rate of accumulation by Bitcoin sharks since 2012, signaling strong bullish conviction among high-net-worth investors and institutions despite Bitcoin’s roughly 30% pullback.
A similar spike in accumulation in 2012 preceded one of Bitcoin’s earliest major rallies, when BTC rose from around $10 to more than $100 within a year — an increase of roughly 900%.
A comparable pattern also emerged in 2011, when heavy accumulation by mid-sized holders followed Bitcoin’s 350% rally from below $3 to above $14.
If this historical fractal were to repeat, it would point toward further upside.
Long-term holders drive selling pressure
Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have been the primary source of selling over the past two months, indicating that accumulation by sharks has not been enough to fully offset the selling pressure.
That imbalance echoes an assessment from Capriole Investments, which noted that record levels of institutional buying have been met with similarly unprecedented selling by long-term holders.
Founder Charles Edwards wrote in a post on Tuesday:
“While institutional buying on Coinbase has reached unprecedented levels (Z-score 15.7), it is being absorbed by ‘OG’ whales and long-term holders selling at rates not seen in years (Hodler Growth Rate at 0.6th percentile).”
He added that further price gains may remain limited until the heavy selling pressure from older coin holders eases.
Reinforcing the bearish case, veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed to Bitcoin’s recent break below its parabolic support — a technical move that has historically preceded declines of roughly 80%. If that pattern were to repeat, Bitcoin’s price could potentially fall as low as $25,000.
