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Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, but its long-term profit-and-loss signal is showing the same curve alignment that preceded each of the three major sell-offs in its history. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index, tracked by CryptoQuant, hit similar numbers in 2013, 2017 and 2021, and each time, there was a drop of about 75-80% the following year.
During those periods, the market value fell from $1,100 to $200, then from $19,700 to $3,200, and later from $69,000 to $15,500. Each reset lined up with the halving pattern that reduces the new Bitcoin supply every four years, shaping the recurring expansion-and-contraction cycle.
The current curve is once again nearing its upper band, showing that profit-taking is now higher than new accumulation.
If the proportional structure repeats, a full retracement could place Bitcoin between $22,000 and $30,000 before the next halving recovery begins. On-chain metrics are showing cooling realized gains, a reduction in transaction intensity and minor outflows from long-term wallets — all typical of late-cycle phases.
The timeline is clear for CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: one year of acceleration, one of peak formation and two of correction before the next halving restarts the pattern. The PnL Index’s current slope, which has been flattening out since its 2024 high, lines up perfectly with its historical rhythm.
So, the future of Bitcoin depends on whether this four-year cycle keeps controlling the market or if it finally breaks. If it holds, the next deep reset could be the start of the 2026 accumulation phase.
