Despite broader risk‑off pressures from rising oil prices and stock market weakness, Bitcoin holds above key support.
Bitcoin is stabilizing above $65,000 on Monday after a volatile weekend that saw crude oil prices surge and equity futures slide following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions.
The intensification of conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply, has rattled global markets and lifted energy prices.
Crude oil prices jumped sharply over the weekend, with Brent rising as much as 13% and U.S. WTI briefly hitting $75 a barrel before easing. At the same time, futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell, reflecting investor caution amid rising economic and inflation risks.
Panic Selling Hits Crypto Derivatives
Cryptocurrency markets mirrored the broader risk‑off mood. Total crypto market capitalization declined as traders unwound leveraged positions amid heightened uncertainty.
Data from CryptoQuant showed a spike in panic-driven sell orders on Saturday, with roughly $1.8 billion in derivative sell volume within an hour, and a marked drop in their derivatives pressure index, signifying extreme seller dominance and short-term risk aversion.
Over the past 24 hours, markets have remained subdued: crypto market cap dropped about 1.3% to $2.28 trillion as liquidity tightened, and approximately $358.7 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, with most of that tied to long exposure.
Bitcoin: Resilient but Sensitive to Macro Risk
Despite macro turbulence, Bitcoin outperformed broader crypto risk assets. BTC has held up better than many altcoins and was trading around $65,900 Monday morning, only 1.7% down over 24 hours.
However, the inflationary implications of the conflict are now entering the conversation.
Stephen Coltman, Head of Macro at crypto asset management firm 21Shares, said global markets are monitoring whether Iran’s remaining leadership will quickly negotiate a deal with the U.S., as happened in Venezuela, or whether the region is entering a more prolonged period of instability.
“Wars are generally inflationary, driving up commodity prices and widening fiscal deficits,” he noted, adding that Bitcoin’s weekend recovery reflects its appeal as a hedge against rising inflation.
“Despite an initial knee‑jerk selloff when the conflict began, it makes sense that we have subsequently seen Bitcoin prices recover over the weekend given it too benefits from higher inflation expectations.”
Reportedly, Bitcoin’s near‑term path will depend on how equity markets and energy prices evolve, alongside a cleaner derivatives landscape after recent long liquidations.
The $64,000-$65,000 range now serves as critical support. A decisive break below could open the door to deeper losses, while stabilization in equities and energy markets may allow BTC to consolidate and attempt a move back toward the $68,000.
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