Bitcoin bulls successfully defended the $80,700–$83,400 support zone, while futures market data indicates a possible short-term liquidity pull near $93,500. However, Glassnode analysts caution that a stronger recovery is unlikely until a critical market liquidity metric hits a specific threshold.
Key takeaways:
- More than 22% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently underwater, heightening vulnerability to support breaks.
- Meanwhile, BTC inflows to Binance hover near 2020 lows, keeping short-term selling pressure subdued.
Bitcoin liquidity emerges as the key metric
In an X post, Glassnode noted that market focus has turned to liquidity after Bitcoin held the $80,700–$83,400 support range. For a sustained rally to take shape, liquidity-sensitive indicators—especially the realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average)—will need to show improvement.
Strong price recoveries—including mid-cycle rebounds over the past two years—have only occurred when the ratio remained above 5, consistently signaling renewed liquidity inflows and capital rotation back into Bitcoin.
Glassnode also pointed out rising supply stress on BTC, noting that over 22% of the circulating supply is currently held at a loss—a scenario previously seen in Q1 2022 and Q2 2018.
This heightens correction risk. If Bitcoin fails to hold key support levels, particularly the −1 standard deviation band of the short-term holder cost basis and the true market mean, long-term holder selling could resume.
Bitcoin exchange flows continue to favor holding
Data from CryptoQuant indicates minimal selling activity, with monthly BTC inflows to Binance averaging about 5,700 BTC. This is less than half the long-term average of roughly 12,000 BTC and marks the lowest level since 2020.
Since exchange inflows typically signal selling, consistently low inflows indicate that investors are holding rather than preparing to sell.
This lowers immediate downside risk but does not eliminate the need for liquidity confirmation, according to crypto analyst Darkfrost, who added:
“This historically low level of BTC inflows represents a rather positive signal. Despite a period of Bitcoin consolidation and growing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors appear more inclined to hold their BTC.”
