Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has rallied more than $10,000 since Sunday to tap $119,000 on Thursday — and some more upside may be left to capture in the short term.
What Happened: Glassnode data shows BTC defending its short-term holder cost basis (~$111,600), a reliable support since May 2025.
After dipping to $109,000 post-FOMC rally, BTC rebounded toward $118,800, indicating strong buy-side demand.
On-chain data dynamics reflects several interesting dynamics:
Overhead resistance lies between $114,000-$118,000, where recent buyers may take profits. Short-term holder realized value has declined, suggesting reduced speculative profit-taking and possible accumulation. Fear & Greed Index cooled from Greed to Neutral/Fear, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Long-term holder selling has slowed, while ETF inflows provide a stabilizing demand floor.
Also Read: Bitcoin Hits 2-Month At $118,000 High, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Rocket Higher
Why It Matters: Glassnode data shows a post-options expiry reset, with open interest rebuilding into Q4.
Short-term implied volatility has eased, the skew shifted neutral, and the curve remains in contango, indicating balanced risk outlook.
This signal reflects reduced immediate downside stress and balanced risk outlook.
The flows show measured upside positioning in calls ($136,000-$145,000), while put selling rises, consistent with seasonal Q4 optimism.
This combination of factors is setting BTC up for a neutral, healthy structure while awaiting a decisive directional move.
A run to $121,000 may be followed by a pullback to $118,000 before further expansion.
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