Bitcoin (BTC) has wrapped up February with its fifth straight monthly loss, marking only the second time in its history that the leading cryptocurrency has printed five consecutive red candles on the monthly chart.
The latest decline saw Bitcoin fall to around $63,000 last Saturday, representing a roughly 15% drop for the month of February. However, the start of March has brought a modest rebound.
The asset opened the first week of the month at $68,600, posting gains of just over 3% as it attempts to reclaim the $70,000 level, which has continuously acted as a significant resistance barrier over the past several weeks.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market participants appear relatively composed. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said traders do not anticipate the Iran conflict causing major economic disruption.
In a note to Bloomberg, Thielen said that demand for upside Bitcoin call options has increased in recent days, suggesting that some investors are positioning for a potential rally ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
The current setup has also reignited historical comparisons. The last time Bitcoin experienced a similar string of red monthly candles was during the 2018-2019 bear market.
In that earlier cycle, the asset went on to print six consecutive monthly losses. What followed was a sharp reversal: five straight green candles and a 308% surge, with Bitcoin climbing from roughly $3,400 to $14,000.
Market expert Ash Crypto recently highlighted this pattern on social media, suggesting that if history were to repeat, Bitcoin could be approaching a cyclical bottom after its fifth red month.
A comparable 300% advance from current trading levels would imply a potential move toward $272,000. Such a projection, however, depends on whether the recent lows ultimately prove to be the final bottom of this correction.
Not all analysts are convinced that the downside is over. Technical analyst Virtual Bacon has outlined the possibility of further retracement before a sustained recovery can be expected.
He identified $65,000 — previously an all-time high — as the first key level, noting that the price has already revisited that zone. For those who subscribe to the thesis that former highs often turn into support, he suggested that the opportunity may already be present.
A deeper pullback, in his view, could bring Bitcoin toward $58,000, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) currently sits. Historically, that long-term indicator has played a critical role in defining market bottoms.
It helped contain the sharp selloff during the 2020 COVID-19 crash, marked the absolute low in 2018, and was tested multiple times in 2015 without ever closing below it every week.
Because of this track record, the 200-week moving average has been widely regarded as one of the most reliable long-term accumulation zones in Bitcoin’s history.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
