Bitcoin price rebounded above the $70,000 level today, offering short-term relief to investors after weeks of heavy losses. Despite the recovery, BTC remains down 27.9% over the past month, reflecting ongoing volatility in the broader crypto market. Market sentiment also remains fragile, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index holding at 11, signaling “Extreme Fear” among traders.
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market since October 6, 2025. According to his analysis, a typical bear market cycle lasts around one year from peak to bottom. Based on this timeline, he estimates the current cycle is roughly 35% complete. While he suggests the market may already be well into its bearish phase, he places Bitcoin’s potential bottom between $32,000 and $60,000, with $49,000 as his most likely target. With BTC currently trading near $70,000, this outlook highlights continued downside risk despite the recent rebound.
Other analysts echo concerns about weak momentum and the broader macro downtrend. Crypto expert Scient noted that previous bear markets in 2019 and 2022 only ended after Bitcoin broke out of its macro downtrend structure. He emphasized that confirmation of strength often comes after the exact bottom, suggesting traders should focus on trend shifts rather than trying to time the market perfectly. The Great Martis also warned that Bitcoin momentum is declining, adding that any short-term bounce could lead to extended sideways movement before another potential drop.
On-chain data further adds to market uncertainty. According to Lookonchain, Garrett Jin, dubbed a “Trump insider whale,” sold 5,000 BTC worth approximately $348.8 million and withdrew over $53 million in USDT from Binance. Whale Alert also tracked 1,651 BTC moving to Binance, increasing exchange activity. Coinglass data showed a $450 million net inflow on February 3, coinciding with Bitcoin’s dip toward $65,000-$68,000. However, strong outflows above $250 million on February 6 and 7 aligned with price stabilization, while more balanced netflows since February 8 suggest reduced immediate selling pressure.
