Bitcoin spent the early weekend bouncing around but kept its footing above $116,000, with an intraday low near $116,024. That resilience extends a three-week recovery as risk appetite improves after the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut, which lowered the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.
Just as important, the Fed’s outlook softened: the median path points to 3.6% for 2025, easing further to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. If those estimates hold, the market could still see two more 25-bp moves (or one 50-bp step) this year.
Lower expected policy rates tend to loosen financial conditions, and crypto — being the furthest out on the risk curve — often feels the upside first. Layer in steady institutional interest and corporate treasury attention, and you’ve got a constructive backdrop for BTC.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price prediction seems bearish as BTC continues to track a rising channel. After completing an ABCD advance, price faded from the wedge top near $118k-$119k and is now grappling with a supply band at $116.2k-$116.8k.
The 50-SMA ($116,050) is capping rebounds intraday, while the 200-SMA (~$113,350) and a prior shelf at $114,400 define demand.
Candlesticks show spinning-top hesitation (small bodies, upper wicks), and RSI ~47 confirms cooling momentum, not capitulation.
The structure of higher lows remains intact unless $113,300 breaks — only then does the risk skew toward a deeper mean-reversion.
Key levels
For beginners, patience near support beats chasing into resistance. Consider a buy-the-dip only if price revisits $114,400-$114,600 and prints a bullish hammer or engulfing on the 4H close — evidence that buyers absorbed supply. Place a stop below $113,200 (under the 200-SMA and last swing low) to keep risk defined.
First take-profit sits at $116,600 (mid-supply/50-SMA), with a second target at $117,980; if momentum flips decisively — think three white soldiers or a strong break-and-hold above the blue zone — leave a runner toward $119,150.
If instead you see three black crows driving a close below $113,300, step aside. That would signal the channel has failed and opens room toward $112,100. Big picture, the Fed’s gentler path and growing institutional demand keep the upside case alive, but the chart still demands confirmation above $116.8k for the next leg higher.
A genuine “surprise effect” could arrive if incoming data nudges the Fed even faster — fuel for a momentum pop — yet disciplined entries and exits remain your best edge.
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