Bitcoin’s steep correction hasn’t deterred optimism among major institutions. According to a new report from JPMorgan, analysts now expect the world’s largest cryptocurrency to reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, citing normalization in leverage and a stronger comparative position against gold.
Key Takeaways:
Lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin’s sharp 20% slide in mid-October — accelerated by futures deleveraging and the $128 million Balancer exploit — has largely reset market leverage, paving the way for a more stable foundation. With futures markets back to healthier levels, the bank believes BTC’s “volatility-adjusted fair value” is significantly higher than current prices.
JPMorgan’s model compares Bitcoin to gold, concluding that BTC remains undervalued by roughly 67% when adjusted for volatility and total private investment in gold. Reaching parity, the analysts argue, would require Bitcoin to trade near $170,000.
JPMorgan predicting bitcoin at $170k in next 6-12mo, says perp deleveraging is behind us and that’s it undervalued vs gold historically, which implies “significant upside next 6-12mo” pic.twitter.com/CaVVWH6L42
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 6, 2025
Traders are also watching technical signals that may confirm whether the recent drop has truly bottomed out. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin has already staged a short-term bounce, but emphasized that the key level to watch is $106,000 — a previous support zone that now serves as resistance.
“If Bitcoin breaks above that level,” van de Poppe said, “it could mark the beginning of a shift toward more positive sentiment.” He added that while the rebound is encouraging, confirmation of trend reversal will only come once the price closes above that threshold.
At the same time, market strategist Crypto Rover pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance is lagging sharply behind the Nasdaq, creating a growing divergence between the two. A chart shared on X showed how U.S. equities have continued their upward momentum while Bitcoin remains trapped in a corrective phase.
Historically, Bitcoin has often followed equity market trends with a short delay, but the current gap suggests that investor appetite for risk assets remains selective. Rover described the divergence as “a wide margin that could soon narrow — one way or another.”
JPMorgan’s bullish case also rests on gold’s rising volatility, which has made Bitcoin more appealing on a risk-adjusted basis. The bank noted that Bitcoin’s volatility ratio versus gold has dropped below 2.0, meaning it now absorbs less than twice the risk capital of gold — a significant improvement from earlier in the year.
This makes BTC an increasingly competitive alternative for institutional investors seeking asymmetric exposure. As the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and equities shifts, traders are recalibrating portfolios for the next cycle.
Despite the brutal correction, several analysts now describe the market tone as cautiously optimistic. With deleveraging largely complete, gold volatility rising, and macro conditions stabilizing, Bitcoin appears to be regaining its footing after one of its sharpest drawdowns of 2025.
Still, traders agree that a decisive break above $106K remains the critical milestone. If that happens, analysts believe confidence could return quickly — setting the stage for a new uptrend that might ultimately validate JPMorgan’s $170K projection.
For now, Bitcoin’s bounce has offered a glimmer of relief — but whether it marks the start of a sustained recovery or just another pause in a volatile year remains to be seen.
