Bitcoin is trading at around $96,466, a modest rebound but still far from the highs seen earlier this year. The market’s concern now centers on a single chart: the rising average purchase cost of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
According to data highlighted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, the $59 billion that has flowed into the first ten spot Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024 now carries an average cost basis of $90,146. With Bitcoin trading only slightly above that level, aggregate unrealized profits have shrunk to roughly $2.94 billion, or 4.7%.
Bianco argues this matters for one reason: if ETF buyers turn net sellers, liquidity could thin quickly. His point is blunt, money market funds would have generated larger gains over the same 22-month period, raising questions about Bitcoin’s performance relative to traditional assets.
So far, 2025 has been challenging for the broader crypto market. Bitcoin opened the year at $93,463, slipped below that level last week, and is now up only 2.6% year-to-date. Ethereum has fared worse, dropping 3.7% since January after starting the year at $3,331.
ETF behavior adds another layer of stress. One trading session alone saw $869.9 million in net outflows, amplifying the selloff and pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to one of its lowest readings of the year.
The chart shared by Bianco shows this shift clearly: unrealized ETF profits peaked near $23.9 billion on October 6, 2025, before collapsing to $7.8 billion in November.
Not everyone shares the pessimism. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley told CNBC he views current levels as a “reasonable entry point,” arguing Bitcoin continues to gain market share from gold.
Michael Saylor echoed similar confidence, saying that his firm remains sound even if Bitcoin dropped 80%, pointing to its five-year average annual return of 50%, outperforming major asset classes.
Bitcoin price prediction is slightly bullish as BTC is attempting to stabilize after breaking below a long-term ascending trendline, a structural shift that still favors sellers. The price is holding above the $94,500-$92,000 demand area, but repeated failures to reclaim the 20-EMA show recovery attempts are fragile.
The RSI at 34 reflects weakening momentum with no bullish divergence in sight. A daily close below $92,000 opens a path toward $91,600, then $83,000. A reclaim of $103,000 with a bullish engulfing candle shifts momentum toward $106,700.
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