Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is changing his tune on Bitcoin again. The founder of Bridgewater Associates now recommends investors allocate up to 15% of their portfolio to Bitcoin or gold to hedge against inflation and surging US debt. That’s a big jump from his 2022 advice, which capped BTC exposure at 2%.
Why the change of heart? Dalio thinks the US is entering what he calls a “debt doom loop” with Treasury projections showing $12 trillion in new debt issuance over the next year.
The national debt has already ballooned to $36.7 trillion, and the government is now expecting to borrow $1 trillion in Q3 alone, a significant increase from earlier estimates. For long-term thinkers, Dalio sees Bitcoin and gold as life rafts in a sinking fiat system.
“If you’re optimizing for risk-adjusted returns, you’d want about 15% in gold or Bitcoin,” Dalio said in a recent podcast.
While Dalio is still gold biased, he acknowledges Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value as confidence in traditional currencies erodes. But his endorsement comes with caveats.
Dalio flagged concerns about blockchain transparency, code-level flaws, and regulatory oversight, saying these limit BTC’s candidacy as a full-fledged reserve asset.
But his main point is clear: when governments print trillions, hard assets matter. And he’s not alone. US Senator Cynthia Lummis recently advocated for Bitcoin as a hedge for working-class Americans struggling with inflation.
Key takeaways from Dalio’s updated stance:
BTC/USD is at $118,386, stuck in a symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart. Volatility has dropped, and the apex is near. The 50 EMA at $118,075 is flat, showing bulls and bears are indecisive. Price has made higher lows since July 25 and lower highs, capping gains, typical of a consolidation before a breakout.
Momentum indicators agree with this coiling setup. RSI is at 53, not overbought or oversold. A slight bullish divergence is forming, as the price made a lower low on July 25, while the RSI made a higher low, indicating that bearish pressure may be losing steam.
The candlestick pattern has printed a doji and a small spinning top, showing balance and setting up for a move. A breakout above $120,283 could take us to $122,845 or $125,111. Below $118,000, and we could see $116,513 or $114,532.
If BTC closes above $120,300 with volume, it’s a breakout from the triangle. Traders can:
This is a clean setup — just wait for confirmation. No breakout? Wait patiently. Triangles trap early movers.
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