Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery on Tuesday, gaining 3.86% to reclaim the $105,000 level after falling to a six-week low of $98,000 over the weekend. The rebound was triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, ending what he called “The 12 Day War.”
According to Trump, Iran initiated a 12-hour ceasefire, followed by Israel’s compliance, signaling a coordinated effort to avoid further escalation.
Investors responded swiftly, reversing the selloff sparked by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. With no reported casualties, thanks to Iran allegedly alerting the U.S. ahead of time, the market perceived this as a sign of de-escalation.
Risk appetite returned, with Bitcoin leading a broad crypto recovery alongside Ethereum and XRP. Overall market sentiment improved significantly, helping BTC reclaim key technical support.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin price prediction seems bullish as BTC has cleared both the 50-period EMA ($103,954) and horizontal resistance at $104,723. Price action is now approaching a descending trendline near $106,500, a level that has consistently rejected bulls since early June.
If BTC manages a clean breakout above this zone, analysts are setting their sights on $109,041 and even $110,522 in the short term.
Momentum indicators support this outlook. The MACD has printed a bullish crossover, and histogram bars are strengthening.
Additionally, BTC has formed a higher low, and no bearish candlestick formations are present near the current resistance level. If $106.5K breaks, the path toward $120,000 becomes technically viable especially if volume continues to increase.
Beyond the charts, macro and geopolitical events are also helping the bull case. The US Federal Reserve’s dovish comments and rising rate cut expectations have weakened the dollar, making Bitcoin a more attractive inflation hedge. CME FedWatch shows an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 70% last week.
And investors are treating Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge. The Middle East ceasefire is holding for now, and US macro policy is getting softer, so Bitcoin should see capital flowing into non-correlated assets.
Bitcoin’s quick bounce after the Trump ceasefire deal and dovish Fed expectations has brought back the bulls. A breakout above $106,500 could take us to $120,000 in the next few weeks. Watch volume and price action at this level, if we get confirmation here the next leg of the macro rally should unlock.
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