* Tom Lee argues Bitcoin is “extremely oversold” and has historically preceded rebounds.
* Lee’s Bitcoin predictions have begun to fuel skepticism across the crypto community.
* Bitcoin did reach new all-time highs in October 2025, validating Lee’s broader bullish thesis — but the magnitude and timing of his forecasts often prove premature.
Bitcoin (BTC) is “extremely oversold” and historically positioned for a rebound, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee, who made the comments on Thursday.
His remarks came as parts of the crypto community voiced growing skepticism toward his consistently bullish all-time-high price forecasts.
Tom Lee Sees Potential Bounce
Lee was responding to a post on X by Julien Bittel, Head of macro research at GMI, who shared a chart tracking Bitcoin’s average price performance following periods when its relative strength index (RSI) dropped below 30.
Such readings are widely interpreted by traders as signaling oversold conditions.
“Good stuff,” Lee wrote in response. “Bitcoin [is] extremely oversold. Bounces follow.”
Bittel argued that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior closely resembles past recoveries after oversold RSI signals, suggesting the pattern may still hold if the broader bull market remains intact.
The analysis also challenged the long-standing belief in Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle.
According to Bittel, the cycle was never primarily driven by Bitcoin halvings themselves, but rather by public debt refinancing dynamics.
“In our view, the four-year cycle is now officially broken,” Bittel said.
He added that under current liquidity and business cycle conditions, the balance of probabilities suggests the crypto market cycle could extend into 2026.
Lee’s Aggressive Price Targets
Lee’s endorsement of the oversold thesis comes as he continues to advocate for significantly higher Bitcoin prices.
Earlier reporting from Bloomberg cited Lee as expecting Bitcoin to rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by late January.
More recently, Lee expanded that outlook, saying onstage at Binance Blockchain Week that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within months.
Taken together, his 2025 record shows that Tom Lee’s Bitcoin calls were more directionally correct than numerically accurate.
Lee consistently framed drawdowns with a bullish stance during periods of elevated volatility and negative sentiment.
That positioning was ultimately validated in a narrow sense when Bitcoin has all-time highs in October 2025.
However, where Lee’s forecasts fell short was magnitude and timing.
CCN’s education team found that his early-March view that Bitcoin could do “better than $150,000” by year-end proved too optimistic.
