Macro headwinds from hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price data and rising concerns about job displacement, alongside shrinking USDT reserves on exchanges, have intensified worries about downside risk as bitcoin remains stuck in a $60,000 to $70,000 trading range.
Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim $70,000 earlier in the week lasted about 48 hours.
The largest cryptocurrency slid to $65,735 in early Asian hours on Saturday, down 3% over the past day and 2.8% on the week. Wednesday’s rally, which came within touching distance of $70,000, has now given back more than half its gains as broader risk sentiment deteriorated through Thursday and Friday’s U.S. sessions.
Altcoins took a harder hit. Solana dropped 6.7%, ether fell 6.2%, dogecoin shed 5.1%, and XRP lost 4%. The losses pushed most major tokens into the red on a weekly basis, erasing the altcoin outperformance that had been the week’s most encouraging signal. BNB held up better than most, down just 2.5%.
The trigger was familiar. Friday’s U.S. session saw the S&P 500 close down 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 drop 0.3%, and the Dow fall 1.1%. Nvidia, still digesting its post-earnings reaction, shed another 4.2%.
A hotter-than-expected 0.5% jump in producer prices added fuel, signaling inflationary pressure that may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon. Block Inc.’s massive layoffs fanned broader anxiety that AI is starting to displace jobs across the economy rather than just creating them.
Crypto followed equities lower, but as usual, with amplified magnitude. A 0.4% drop in the S&P became a 3% drop in bitcoin and a more than 6% drop in altcoins. The leverage that re-entered the system during Wednesday’s rally got flushed on the way back down.
The irony is that the institutional flow data this week was actually strong.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $1.1 billion in three days, putting them on pace for their best week in months. But ETF inflows haven’t been enough to overcome the broader macro headwinds.
“Over-analysis of short-term price movements is misguided,” said Dom Harz, co-founder of bitcoin finance firm BOB said in an email. “Bitcoin’s volatility is no surprise, particularly for early investors who have experienced previous cycles. What’s different this time is the type of capital behind the emerging asset class.”
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows USDT stablecoin reserves on exchanges have fallen from $60 billion to $51.1 billion over the past two months, a decline the firm warned could trigger a “massive sell-off” if reserves drop below $50 billion.
Elsewhere, Strategy shares topped the list of large U.S. companies by short interest volume as markets increasingly question the sustainability of the firm’s debt-funded bitcoin buying program.
And on the Ethereum side, large holders have started selling at a loss, with DAT company ETHZilla officially abandoning its ETH accumulation strategy and rebranding to focus on tokenized real-world assets instead.
Bitcoin is now back in the middle of the $60,000-$70,000 range it has been stuck in since the Feb. 5 crash. Wednesday proved the top of that range is resistance. The question heading into March is whether the bottom still holds.
