As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading around $111,673, down 8% over the past week and 0.5% over the previous day. Trading activity has weakened sharply, with volume falling more than 27% in a single day to $66.2 billion, suggesting that market participation is thinning.
CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin’s open interest slightly declined to $72 billion, while derivatives volume dropped 35.5% to $92.5 billion. This combination typically points to traders closing leveraged positions and waiting for clearer market signals before re-entering.
Spot BTC ETF outflows signal renewed caution
According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $94 million in net outflows on October 15, led by Grayscale’s GBTC with $82.9 million withdrawn. Invesco and BlackRock followed with smaller outflows.
This marks the first major ETF redemption after nine consecutive sessions of inflows, following a brief rebound of $102.6 million in net inflows on October 14. The pattern suggests that institutional demand remains cautious.
BTC options market shows short-term bearishness
Data from Greeks.live highlights increased short-term bearish activity in the Bitcoin options market. Put options with strike prices between $104,000 and $108,000 accounted for 28% of total trading volume.
With longer-term metrics remaining neutral, the rise in short-term hedging points to temporary caution rather than a structural bearish shift.
Macro conditions continue to support Bitcoin in the medium term. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on October 14 strengthened expectations of a rate cut later this month. Lower interest rates could boost liquidity, potentially benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and recent tariff increases pose potential headwinds, keeping overall risk sentiment fragile.
Bitcoin technical analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains within the lower Bollinger Band, consolidating near short-term support around $110,000–$111,000. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 42, signaling neutral momentum but trending toward oversold levels.
With the stochastic oscillator at 13, Bitcoin appears to have cooled sharply and could be poised for a short-term reversal if buying pressure returns.
Momentum and MACD readings remain negative, reflecting the lack of follow-through after the early-October rally to $126,000. Nevertheless, the long-term structure remains intact. The 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, both near $107,000, continue to provide bulls with a key support zone.
A bounce from this level could drive prices toward resistance around $114,000–$116,000, near the mid-Bollinger Band. Conversely, a break below $110,000 could trigger a more pronounced decline, potentially testing $104,000.
