Analysts eye $117K support; a break could trigger a slide toward $112K-$114K in August.
August has arrived, and Bitcoin is already under pressure. Historically, this month has not been kind to the leading cryptocurrency. Median returns sit near negative 8 percent, with losses often stretching deeper.
After a record-breaking July, momentum cooled quickly as sellers emerged. Now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can defend $117,000 or slide into a deeper correction.
Historically, August has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months.
Data from 2011 to 2025 shows median monthly returns of around minus 8.3 percent. Typical drawdowns range between 5 and 20 percent, putting this month in sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s 58 percent overall monthly win rate.
That trend is already visible. Bitcoin touched highs near $123,100 in mid-July but has since slid back to roughly $115,600 as August begins. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is down 2.36 percent in 24 hours and 0.29 percent over the past week.
Moby Media noted Bitcoin’s record close but warned that history has not favored August. Swissblock analysts echoed the caution, pointing to miner selling and a slowdown in momentum after July 22.
Realized profits increased during late July, which capped upside moves and triggered consolidation.
Roughly 96 percent of Bitcoin supply remains in profit. While that shows strong holding behavior, it also means many traders may be tempted to sell. Each bounce is facing fresh supply, and until demand strengthens, Bitcoin could trade sideways longer.
Swissblock analysts note that 96 percent of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit. This creates a double-edged scenario: long-term holders stay firm, but unrealized gains tempt sellers.
As profit-taking fades, they argue the market is entering a cooling phase rather than a panic-driven selloff.
If Bitcoin can stabilize above $117,000 and reclaim $120,000, a retest of $123,000 could follow. Failure to hold these levels might open the door to a slide toward $112,000 to $114,000.
Liquidity is recovering, and network growth remains steady, suggesting that consolidation could continue before the next move. While profit-taking has slowed, Swissblock’s market view points to a neutral stance, with a breakout likely requiring fresh demand.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, but momentum needs to reset. Analysts say that until new buyers step in, each bounce may invite more selling. Altcoins like Ethereum are holding up better in the current pullback, but broad rotation across the market is thinning.
For now, Bitcoin is grinding sideways. August is here, and the coming weeks will decide if this is a simple pause or the start of a larger reset.
