BTC must defend $85,204 support or risk deeper decline toward $82,503 amid weakening sentiment.
Bitcoin is trading under pressure this week after falling to $86,000, driven by bearish macroeconomic cues and weaker risk appetite.
The decline is raising concern among analysts because it coincides with an important shift in profitability among short-term holders, who are seeing their first meaningful profits since February 2023.
The MVRV Long/Short Difference has slipped into negative territory for the first time in nearly three years. This shift signals that short-term holders now hold more unrealized profit than long-term holders, a rare dynamic that last appeared in early 2023. Historically, such periods lead to heightened selling because short-term investors tend to exit positions quickly when they see profit.
This trend is concerning for Bitcoin’s price outlook. With BTC already under a month-long downtrend, any spike in short-term selling could intensify the decline. The metric’s drop reflects rising fragility in market sentiment and hints at a potential acceleration of downward momentum if conditions fail to improve.
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Broader macro momentum is also flashing warning signs. Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio has surged, showing the network is becoming overheated. The ratio compares the dollar value of network activity with transaction volume. A high reading indicates strong social enthusiasm but weak on-chain usage, a combination that often precedes corrective moves.
This imbalance suggests Bitcoin’s current valuation may not be supported by underlying activity. If the divergence persists, a market correction could follow to bring the ratio back to healthier levels. This adds pressure to the already fragile short-term outlook.
Bitcoin is trading at $86,005, holding just above the $85,204 support level. The asset remains trapped under a persistent downtrend that has lasted more than a month. This would prevent any sustained recovery attempts.
If market conditions worsen or short-term holder selling accelerates, Bitcoin could break below $85,204. A drop through this support would expose the price to $82,503 and potentially deepen losses as fear rises across the market.
However, if buyers step in and support strengthens, Bitcoin could reclaim upward momentum. A bounce from current levels could send BTC toward $89,800. A decisive move above that resistance would be essential for Bitcoin to retest $90,000 and invalidate the bearish thesis.
