On Friday, the Bitcoin price experienced another flash crash, dipping toward $103,000 from $109,300. While not as alarming as the sharp decline seen on October 10, this latest downturn has ignited fresh speculation regarding the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.
Comparisons are being made to past market crash events, such as the COVID crash in 2020 and the downturn in May 2021. However, market expert VirtualBacon emphasizes that the current situation is fundamentally different.
The expert noted that in 2020, a widespread collapse affected various assets, including stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. By 2021, Bitcoin was already in a downtrend. In contrast, today, while the Bitcoin price has faced challenges, stocks and gold are holding steady or even rising.
He believes that the recent struggles in the crypto market appear to stem from a unique credit event rather than a broader macroeconomic meltdown, as excessive leverage was wiped out in the process.
Despite the recent volatility, VirtualBacon highlights that Bitcoin’s underlying structure remains healthy. The cryptocurrency recently touched the 20-week moving average and bounced back. Moreover, the 50-week simple moving average, which resides around $102,000, has yet to be breached, even amidst this latest drop.
According to VirtualBacon’s analysis, until the Bitcoin price closes below the $100,000 mark, this downturn should be viewed as a correction within an ongoing bull market rather than a definitive top.
Seasonality also plays a role in these trends: October typically sees chop, with altcoins lagging behind Bitcoin, while November and December are often characterized by altcoin rallies.
Despite the recent flush, VirtualBacon asserted that the market dynamics have not fundamentally changed; it may have even accelerated a reset in sentiment, clearing out leverage to return to cycle lows.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors are quietly turning bullish. Recent forecasts indicate that two rate cuts are now priced in at 96% for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings on October 28-29 and December 9-10.
VirtualBacon outlines a clear plan moving forward: Bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $110,000 and $125,000. A break above the $125,000 to $130,000 range could signal the start of a new altcoin season.
Contrastingly, some experts, such as Doctor Profit, express a more pessimistic outlook for the Bitcoin price. He has consistently argued that the crypto prices are merely in the early stages of a bear market, which often begins with a series of false pumps followed by sharp declines, a pattern that aligns with the events of last week.
It remains to be seen which direction the Bitcoin price will take next. For now, the cryptocurrency has recovered slightly from Friday’s drop to around $106,620.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
