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After what seemed like a strong start to September, the Bitcoin price is pretty much back where it began the month. With the historically bullish “Uptober” now in sight, investors are hoping that the premier cryptocurrency will be able to find some relief and perhaps enjoy some upward momentum in the coming weeks.
However, the latest on-chain revelation suggests that the Bitcoin price is at risk of further downward pressure over the next few weeks. According to a prominent analyst on social media platform X, the market leader has fallen below a crucial level, which could trigger a further 10% price drawdown.
On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the X platform to share an update on the Bitcoin price in relation to the Short-Term Holder (STH)’s Realized Price. According to the crypto pundit, the BTC price has now broken beneath the STH Realized Price — around $111,500 — for the fourth time this year.
For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is a metric that estimates the average price at which Bitcoin short-term investors (holding for less than 115 days) purchased their coins. Because it represents the average cost basis of this relevant investor cohort, the STH Realized Price often acts as a dynamic support and resistance level.
Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin price had previously fallen below the STH Realized Price three times so far during this bull run, which started in November 2022. According to the on-chain analyst, the market leader entered a consolidation phase when this happened the past three times.
In the first incident of BTC slipping beneath STH Realized Price, the Bitcoin price witnessed an over 8% decline between August and October 2023. Meanwhile, the flagship cryptocurrency’s value declined by more than 13% between June 2024 and October 2024 in the second occurrence.
Most recently, the market leader dipped almost 8% between February and April 2025 when the Bitcoin price fell below the STH Realized Price. Kesmeci highlighted that, on average, these consolidation phases lasted 77 days and each resulted in an almost 10% loss in BTC’s value.
Kesmeci concluded that the Bitcoin price could enter a consolidation/correction phase if it does close the week and perhaps the month beneath the STH Realized Price around $111,500. And if history does repeat itself, investors could see the market lose as much as 10% over the next two to three months.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $109,538, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
