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The Bitcoin price tumbled 4% in October, breaking its seven-year ‘Uptober’ streak as ETF outflows, profit-taking, and macro jitters weighed on the market.
An analysis by Fortune showed it was Bitcoin’s fourth-worst October performance since 2013 and the worst in the past seven years. That left BTC trailing the S&P 500 stock index, which rose 2.3%.
The sell-off came as more than $550 million flowed out of major Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs late in the month, with analysts saying profit-taking also played a part as Bitcoin treasury firms, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, also slowed their BTC buying.
Even a one-year trade truce between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping this past week was not enough to push Bitcoin back into the green for the month.
Trump’s October 10 announcement that he would impose an additional 100% tariff on China’s exports had triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations in 24 hours, the largest ever in the crypto market.
One of the reasons sentiment remained downbeat after the US-China trade truce was a comment this week by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that another interest rate cut in December is far from certain.
Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Show Resilience
Despite the drop in coin price, on-chain data points to ongoing strength in the Bitcoin network. Exchange reserves of Bitcoin hit all-time lows in October, dropping by over 200,000 BTC in just one month. This means fewer coins are being held on exchanges where they can easily be sold.
A sign that investors are moving coins to their wallets and may be planning to hold for the long term.
Bitcoin Active Addresses Source: CryptoQuant
The supply of BTC on trading platforms is shrinking, making the coin more scarce and potentially setting the stage for a future rally. This pattern of withdrawal is similar to what happened before Bitcoin’s major run-up in 2020 and reflects strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Institutional accumulation is still happening even with ETF outflows, as some large players transfer coins into private custody. Bitcoin’s network activity, including active addresses and transaction counts, has remained solid, showing people are using the network even during a month of price declines.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Looking at the weekly price chart, Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,496.77, after pulling back from the October high but staying well above important support levels. The price sits above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $102,843.54, while the long-term 200-week SMA is much lower, at $54,756.36.
These SMA levels act as strong support for the Bitcoin price and help limit further losses. The chart shows Bitcoin is moving within an upward-trending channel, with resistance near $125,761 and support down around $102,843. The uptrend remains in play as long as the price holds above the lower support line and the key moving averages.
Technical indicators point to a pause in the bullish momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50.32, right at the midpoint, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers are clearly in control and the market is consolidating.
BTCUSD Analysis Source: Tradingview
The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 17.81, showing the current trend is weak, and new momentum is needed to start another rally. If buyers return and push past resistance at $125,761, Bitcoin could try to retake its highs. However, if the price drops below the 50-week SMA ($102,843), further selling may push it toward the next major support at $54,756.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator stays in neutral territory, suggesting sideways movement for now. Low trading volume and a lack of strong momentum mean that Bitcoin may trade in a tight range over the coming weeks.
If the coin price bounces from the $102,843 support, a new attempt at the $125,761 resistance could bring in more buyers. But a break below support may see Bitcoin test deeper levels before bulls step in again.
In November, much will depend on global financial trends and whether new institutional money returns to the market. If macro risks settle and ETF flows become positive again, coin price could resume its climb and set up for another rally.
However, price may consolidate, with bulls and bears waiting for the next big move. Traders should watch support at $102,843 and resistance at $125,761, as breaks beyond these levels could signal the next direction for Bitcoin’s price.
Read more on InsideBitcoins.com
