Bitcoin price needs to rise about 7% and close above $115,900 to confirm a breakout, while $107,200 remains the key support to hold.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has fallen about 2.3% in the past 24 hours, trading near $108,800 after a volatile week where the “Black Friday” crash took center stage. But while prices are still struggling to recover, short-term holders (STH) appear to be buying every dip — and the scale of their buying could soon matter.
This sudden accumulation, seen right after the October 10 correction, suggests growing optimism even as the broader trend remains cautious. But that’s not all. The STH accumulation trend now aligns with technical validations, hinting at a potential Bitcoin price rebound, if not a rally.
The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) — a metric that measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss — has dropped to -0.04, the lowest since April 20, 2025. A negative reading means most short-term holders are holding at a loss, which often signals a market bottom or early recovery setup as selling pressure fades.
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Similar lows have previously led to quick rebounds.
Now, with NUPL even lower and losses deeper, short-term holders appear to be doubling down instead of exiting.
According to Glassnode, the total supply held by short-term holders (STH) has surged from 2.54 million BTC on October 13 to 2.65 million BTC as of October 16 — a 4.3% increase in just three days. This rise means short-term traders have added roughly 110,000 BTC (almost $12 billion at the current BTC price), showing aggressive buying despite the drop. Also, the STH supply has now hit a 3-month high on the charts despite weak prices, showing near-term conviction.
This mix of negative NUPL and growing supply usually marks a phase of quiet accumulation, when short-term holders position for a potential rebound.
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows BTC price forming a falling wedge. It is a pattern where lower highs and lower lows compress into narrowing boundaries, often leading to a bullish breakout.
Since October 11, BTC has made a lower low on price, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures the speed and strength of price movements — has made a higher low. This is called a bullish divergence, a technical signal that momentum might be turning upward.
To confirm a rebound, Bitcoin must climb around 7.4%, breaking above $115,900 to escape the wedge. Before that, the price needs to close above $112,100 and $113,500, two resistance zones that have rejected recent recovery attempts.
If Bitcoin breaks past $115,900, it could open the path toward $122,500, the next major resistance level. However, if the $107,200 support fails, BTC might revisit its cycle bottom near $102,000.
The short-term setup is clear: short-term holders are buying heavily, momentum is stabilizing, and key technical patterns hint at relief. But for this to evolve into a rally, Bitcoin must hold $107,000 and close above $115,900. These two levels will decide if this $12 billion buying wave turns into something bigger.
