Key points:
- Bitcoin surged 38% after President Trump signed a major spending bill in late 2020.
- A similar move now, as Trump readies his “Big Beautiful Bill,” could propel BTC/USD to $150,000.
- While global liquidity trends remain supportive of further gains, Bitcoin may hit a peak beforehand.
Bitcoin could surge nearly 40% following U.S. President Donald Trump’s signing of his “Big Beautiful Bill” on Independence Day.
Crypto investors are anticipating sharp BTC price gains as Trump’s “massive” spending package comes to fruition.
“Big Beautiful Bill” Draws Comparisons to COVID-19 Bull Market
Bitcoin has historically rallied on signs of rising U.S. borrowing, and Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” could follow the same pattern. Projections now suggest the U.S. national debt could soar to $40 trillion by 2025.
“To put this into perspective, total U.S. debt was $23.2 trillion at the start of 2020. A rise to $40 trillion would represent an almost $17 TRILLION increase in just six years,” noted trading resource The Kobeissi Letter in a recent analysis.
“Never in history has the US borrowed even remotely near the levels we are borrowing now. This is a crisis.”
Kobeissi cited prediction platform Kalshi, which projected the U.S. national debt reaching $40 trillion.
Historically, Bitcoin has thrived amid rising U.S. debt levels, benefiting from the added economic risk such increases imply.
As crypto commentators like YouTuber Crypto Rover have pointed out, BTC/USD jumped 38% within weeks after Trump signed the COVID-19 relief bill in late 2020.
If similar price action follows the “Big Beautiful Bill,” Bitcoin could surge past $150,000.
Bitcoin follows the money
As ongoing reports highlight, bullish bets on Bitcoin are also being driven by the rising global M2 money supply.
Throughout Bitcoin’s history, a strong correlation has been observed between BTC/USD and M2 trends, with Bitcoin typically lagging slightly behind movements in the money supply.
This month, trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that the M2 money supply can keep climbing even after Bitcoin reaches a bull market blow-off top.
As of Thursday, global M2 hit a new all-time high, surpassing $55.4 trillion.
