The Bitcoin price has seen a significant pullback, retracing nearly 26% from its all-time highs, fueling speculation about the potential onset of a new bear market.
Compounding this uncertainty, a fresh sell signal has emerged from one of the cryptocurrency’s key indicators, reminiscent of the past when similar signals led to a staggering 67% drop in value.
Market expert Ali Martinez pointed out in a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that the last time the SuperTrend indicator issued a sell signal for Bitcoin was in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin, which had reached an all-time high of $69,000, subsequently fell to around $17,000.
While the market landscape has changed significantly since then — with the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new digital asset treasuries (DATs), and increased institutional support spurred by pro-crypto regulations — the current situation mirrors some of those past concerns.
As it stands, the Bitcoin price is trading just above $94,500. If the historical trend of a 67% retracement were to repeat in the next months, the price could potentially fall to around $31,185, which could be the potential bottom of the new bear market.
Adding to the conversation, another analyst known as Mr. Wall Street suggested that the recent Bitcoin price peak might be at $126,000. He forecasted that the next major downward move could see BTC hit levels between $74,000 and $82,000, ultimately reaching a target between $54,000 and $60,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026.
This perspective contributes to the notion that Bitcoin is likely confirmed in a bear market, which could result in a year-long decline marked by price fluctuations similar to those seen in previous bear cycles.
Further complicating the outlook, analyst Doctor Profit pointed out a significant technical signal: the Bitcoin price experienced a death cross for the first time since April 2025.
This event, marked by the 50-day moving average (MA) crossing below the 200-day moving average, historically led to rallies of 25% to 60% in the following three months.
However, Doctor Profit emphasized a crucial difference this time around: the death cross occurred while Bitcoin was trading 6% below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). In the previous instances, such crosses happened while Bitcoin was positioned above the EMA50, suggesting a different market sentiment this time.
The current bearish sentiment is intensified by negative trends in ETF sales and whale net volume, adding significant pressure to the Bitcoin price.
With the average entry price for Bitcoin buyers over the past six months set at approximately $94,600, falling back toward or below this level could trigger fresh selling pressure.
Historically, short-term traders tend to exit at breakeven or even at a slight loss, raising concerns about further declines. Doctor Profit concluded his analysis stating:
This combination of ETF selling, whale selling, and a large cluster of sellers sitting at breakeven levels is a dangerous setup and adds to the bearish case.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
