Bitcoin faces a critical test as delayed September CPI data is released Friday, the first since the government shutdown. This report, crucial for the Fed’s interest rate decision, is expected to show a modest inflation increase. Experts anticipate a subdued market reaction, with investors more focused on trade policy uncertainties.
Bitcoin is poised for a critical test this Friday(October 24) as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September is set to be released, marking the first such report since the government shutdown on October 1. This delayed release adds an element of uncertainty, as it is the first Friday CPI print since 2018. Friday’s CPI release will test whether Bitcoin can hold steady amid the first wave of post-shutdown economic clarity.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released is expected to be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. The report comes at a time of considerable economic uncertainty, as officials and economists are without up-to-date labor market data due to the ongoing government shutdown.
“Bitcoin and the broader market are expected to respond moderately to this week’s key macro event,” Tim Sun, senior researcher at digital asset financial services company HashKey Group, told Decrypt. “Given slowing employment and moderating demand, even a mild upside surprise in CPI is unlikely to materially alter market expectations.”
“If US inflation aligns with expectations and shows only minor deviations, the most likely outcome is a subdued market reaction,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt, echoing Sun’s assessment.
According to Decrypt website, while the consensus forecast predicts headline inflation will increase to 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent, data from Truflation, a crypto-based independent macroeconomic data provider, points to a lower figure of 2.28 percent.
Sun noted that the most likely outcome is a “modest increase or a flat reading,” consistent with a narrative of gradual inflation moderation. He added that the data itself is unlikely to trigger major market disruption, as investors remain focused on ongoing tariff and trade policy uncertainties.
While the inflation report is important for policy considerations, Sun emphasized that it may not be decisive by itself, noting that “the Fed tends to focus on the cumulative direction of inflation rather than one data point.”
Bitcoin is trading roughly 11 percent below its October 10 high of $122,500, a level that previously triggered a historic $19 billion liquidation event. By comparison, the S&P 500 index sits just 0.37 percent below its recent peak, signaling a stronger risk appetite among equity investors.
